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Wednesday Dec 27, 2023   
Southern California’s world looks a lot different this holiday season compared to the previous two.  If you recall, prior to Winter 2022, the big concern was tied to the reduction of transport capacity from the Desert Southwest due to the August 2021 fire on L2000.  Such a reduction in the overall capacity prompted the California Public Utility Commission (CPUC) to allow 7.2 BCF more gas to be put into Aliso Canyon’s storage cavern.  This decision came with public protests and testimonials but nonetheless, the board members passed the ruling unanimously. Figure 1 | Aliso Canyon Storage Levels The ironic thing about the decision is that the SoCal Gas system did not have to dip into the incremental gas storage volume all winter despite the lack of natural gas ... » read more
Tuesday Dec 26, 2023   
The holiday season is full of joy and happiness, where family and friends gather around and tell stories about years past and what is in store come the New Year.  Here at EnergyGPS, we would like to invite you to our virtual gathering to first thank you for being a part of the experience in 2023 and we look forward to what lies ahead in 2024 and beyond. Figure 1 | Happy Holidays from EnergyGPS This past year brought forth the conversation of how the energy sector became fully connected globally as the Russian-Ukraine war continued to forge ahead with the former being isolated by several European countries while the latter had its allies pumping both money and military equipment towards the smaller foe as a means of survival.  Behind the scenes, agriculture, supply chain ... » read more
Friday Dec 22, 2023   
Figure 1 | Megasized Steelhead, of Equal Weight to Fredonia Generating Station (Alternatively, Tiny Fredonia)   On December 14th, the Biden administration announced their support for breaching the four lower Snake River dams (Ice Harbor, Lower Monumental, Little Goose, and Lower Granite) after a proposed agreement was leaked. The agreement also indicates that, if the removal of the dams is expedited, it would take no longer than two fish generations, or eight to ten years. In addition to the objective of restoring salmon and steelhead populations to healthy levels, the agreement includes the objective “Invest in and support communities and economic sectors (e.g., energy, transportation, agriculture, and recreation) in a manner that: is consistent with meeting decarbonization ... » read more
Thursday Dec 21, 2023   
The CAISO battery fleet has been dealing with symptoms tied to lower revenue, especially the past couple of weeks as natural gas continues to soften, a Diablo Canyon nuclear unit went offline for some unplanned maintenance and now the lack of solar generation due to cloud cover and a precipitation pattern that is bringing rain to Southern California. Figure 1 | CAISO Battery Fleet Breakdown for December 12th – 18th – Hourly  The chart in the figure above illustrates the CAISO battery charge (blue shaded area) and the discharge (orange shaded area) volume for the past eight days.  The black line represents that of SP15’s real-time five-minute price settles on a $/MWh basis.  The sharp spike in the actual price back on December 12th came during the morning ... » read more
Wednesday Dec 20, 2023   
With 2024 just around the corner, we are quickly approaching the first anniversary of the Washington Cap and Invest Program. We’ve been covering the developments every step of the way, including most recently in the market flash  ‘Auction #4 Results’. Earlier this month, we also released a new monthly dashboard for those interested in keeping track of conditions in the Pacific Northwest. The WA Carbon Dashboard includes the following figures, which display year-on-year comparisons of load, net load, and hydro generation in the Pacific Northwest. The thicker red line represents the current year while the teal and orange lines represent 2022 and 2021 values. Each figure also displays a thick gray line which takes the average monthly values for the years 2015 to 2019. » read more
Tuesday Dec 19, 2023   
The Pacific Northwest is getting another round of precipitation along the I-5 corridor while the temperatures are lingering on the side of colder overnight temperatures and moderate day-time highs.  This combination led to the Mid-C trading hub settling below that of both hubs in California (NP15 and SP15) in the bilateral market for today. Figure 1 | Pacific Northwest Hydro Generation – Next 7 Days The graph in the figure above displays the next seven days of hydro generation (red-dotted line) and compares it to the five-year band (gray shaded area) and where things stood last year leading into the holiday season.  The 2023 forecast is below that of last year but is well above the 9.5 GW average we were looking at just a few weeks ago. There are a couple of reasons tied ... » read more
Monday Dec 18, 2023   
Several families travel over the holidays, some to see immediate family while others take it upon themselves to enjoy some sort of family vacation to a destination that ranges depending on the age of the children.  For example, the families with younger children might opt for something tied to Disney or an amusement park in the warmer weather climates while the older children might like to lay around a pool while looking at the ocean water, which then takes you to the southern portion of the Lower 48, Mexico, or island life.  Figure 1 | Vacation Over the Holidays The energy sector requires 24-hour guidance to the balancing act so that means that for some, there is no trip to one of the destination described in the opening paragraph but that does not mean the excitement will not ... » read more
Friday Dec 15, 2023   
For good reason, load growth is a hot topic these days as decades of limited growth in electricity sector is giving way massive new loads hitting the grid all over the United States. In this week's EnergyGPS Burrito publication (sample Burrito), we discussed this topic in the Phunk Salsa section that is dedicated to our staff hitting on key topics within the energy sector.  If you would like to subscribe to such content, the EnergyGPS eCommerce platform allows one to sign up on an monthly or annual basis.  For multiple licenses within your company, please click here as the options are similar to the load growth trajectory stated. Now back to the topic at hand, it is tricky to figure out exactly what is going on and why. A new report published this week by Grid Strategies ... » read more
Thursday Dec 14, 2023   
This past summer, ERCOT experienced some of the most extreme scarcity and high prices in its history—certainly since Winter Storm Uri. There were no blackouts, but the overall tightness on the grid was evident nearly every day during August (as well as many in July and September). The factors underlying the tightness are complex and varied, but one in particular stands out: the increase in load this summer compared to last, driven partly by the heat, and partly by long-term, underlying load growth. In our latest Newsletter Special Report, “Year-on-Year Changes in ERCOT Demand”, we take a deep dive into the changes in ERCOT demand, as well as some of the key drivers involved. Not only was load overall higher than past years, but net load was higher as well. This is ... » read more
Wednesday Dec 13, 2023   
‘Tis the season for carolers, presents under the tree, and jolly old Saint Nick, but not for batteries attempting to capture real-time arbitrage. As we move deeper toward the end of Q4 and closer to Q1 2024, we’re seeing a familiar pattern of the CAISO battery fleet missing morning price peaks and missing charging opportunities at the lowest prices of the day. The figure below is featured in our Daily CAISO Battery Dashboard. The shaded orange represents net discharging for the fleet while blue represents net charging with SP15 real-time prices overlaid as a black line. Look at December 11th, the last day displayed. The morning saw a big price spike up to $140/MWh, but battery dispatch came in much lower at this time interval than at much lower prices in the evening. » read more
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