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| Tuesday Feb 10, 2026 | |
| Grid operators in regions with high renewable penetration have increasingly faced early-season curtailments, driven by transmission bottlenecks and low demand during periods of strong wind and midday solar output. However, the trend has been different this year as discussed in our latest article. California’s experience over the past few years was amplified by consecutive strong water years, where heavy snowpack and reservoir spill forced hydro generation to run near capacity even when the grid did not need the energy. In contrast, the current water year is shaping up very differently. Snowpack across Northern California remains below five-year lows heading into mid-February 2026, fundamentally altering hydro availability and reshaping renewable dynamics across the ... » read more | |
| Monday Feb 9, 2026 | |
| The streets of Seattle will be filled with their fan base, known as the ‘12’, as they celebrate the Super Bowl victory of their beloved Seahawks. For some, the commercials and halftime show is what it is all about but for others it is socializing with friends and family, along with the food. If you watched the game, it was won in the trenches where the Seattle defense was outstanding the entire game (heck all season). Both offenses were stagnant for most of the game as the game was left without a touchdown in the first three quarters only to have a run of scores where the ball crossed the end zone in the fourth quarter, one being a defensive score to seal the championship for the Emeral City. Figure 1 | Seattle Seahawks Super Bowl Champions - 2026 Throughout ... » read more | |
| Friday Feb 6, 2026 | |
| In a recent article from EGPS, ERCOT Demand Growth Broadens, we discussed weather-normalized, structural load growth within ERCOT. The article parsed the noise of recent years of load growth data, normalized it based on weather, and contrasted it with the load growth forecasts issued by ERCOT in recent years. Based on weather normalization, we have seen consistent structural ERCOT year-over-year load growth at around 6%, as shown in Figure 1 below. As recently as 2024, ERCOT demand forecast annual total energy to grow at 15%, with the bulk of this growth coming from large-load customers such as data centers. To date, this has not precisely come to pass. Figure 1 | Nominal and Weather- Normalized Average Monthly Demand for ERCOT, 2021-2026 YTD Why the disparity between forecast and ... » read more | |
| Thursday Feb 5, 2026 | |
| The bulk of the discussion in our latest Renewable Monthly Report focuses on the markets outside the West, where the late January polar vortex that worked its was across most of the country to bring tightness on both the natural gas and power grids and dampened renewable output to temporarily halt the steady growth that has been on display for many consecutive months. But there is still plenty that sticks out from the January data in the West. The figure below is one example of an eye-catching image, taken from CAISO during the previous month. Figure 1 | January CAISO System Solar vs Net Load (Color shows LMP, Point Size Shows Solar Curtailment) The figure is a scatter plot of hourly CAISO solar potential generation against the hourly net load, calculated as CAISO load minus the sum of ... » read more | |
| Wednesday Feb 4, 2026 | |
| While much of the US was digging themselves out of snow and ice, Alberta has been enjoying a warm end to January and start of February. Above-normal temperatures covered the 15-day forecast starting last week and the trend has continued into this week. The figure below is taken from Energy GPS’s US Degree Day Comparison dashboard. Alberta has been recently added as a region on the dashboard so now subscribers can see how heating degree days and their departure from normals have adjusted in recent forecasts. The most recent forecast is displayed vertically on the far right and is awash with red. Heating degree days are expected to be as much 30 degrees above normal temperatures in Alberta in the coming weeks. Figure 1 | Alberta HDD – Departure from Normals by Model Run ... » read more | |
| Tuesday Feb 3, 2026 | |
| During Winter Storm Fern, ERCOT experienced extreme cold and volatile pricing—but the battery fleet’s response was anything but intuitive. Storm Fern served as a reminder that battery optimization is as much about forecasting confidence as it is about hardware, a theme we unpack in much greater detail in our latest article titled: “ Batteries Waver Amidst the Storm”. Despite soaring real-time prices during several peak periods, batteries largely sat on the sidelines, particularly during the evenings of January 24–25 when prices were most attractive. Instead of aggressively discharging into scarcity, battery activity remained muted, raising questions about what operators were seeing—and missing—during the storm. Figure 1 – RT Charge ... » read more | |
| Monday Feb 2, 2026 | |
| The storm that is hitting the East Coast currently has snow and ice covering the Southeast to the Carolinas while the likes of New York City and Boston are dealing with 8 straight days of temperatures in the single digits. Texas and the Gulf Coast regions are both thankful for ability to recover from the previous week’s sheet of ice and colder temperatures that wreaked havoc on the system, specifically production in West Texas, Panhandle, Oklahoma and East Texas/Arkansas regions. The recovery of the natural gas production volume is helping the entire country as the cash prices leaning into February were strong but not like they were a week prior. Figure 1 | ERCOT Summary Breakdown of Net Load, Thermal and Prices – Hourly Now that the Lone Star State is thawing out, the net ... » read more | |
| Friday Jan 30, 2026 | |
| Following the recent release of the updated EIA 860m data, we published a piece of content discussing historical WECC capacity additions (Special Report – Capacity Additions in the WECC – 2025). For several years, renewables and storage have accounted for many of these additions, with 2025 also reflecting this ongoing trend. Looking to the future, forecasted capacity additions as expressed in balancing authorities' Integrated Resource Plans (IRPs) are also overwhelmingly composed of intermittent renewable resources and storage. As load growth accelerates and emissions standards tighten across multiple jurisdictions, utilities are planning for a system with declining reliance on conventional, dispatchable, thermal generators, and greater exposure to weather-driven variability ... » read more | |
| Thursday Jan 29, 2026 | |
| While most of the country is worrying about the intense cold wreaking havoc on natural gas production or testing ISO demand response programs, the Pacific Northwest is transitioning back to another stretch of sunshine and comfortable temperatures after some mild cold last week and the first couple days of this week. While this is wonderful news with the many Northwestern’s whose seasonal affective disorder is triggered by the typically gloomy and wet winters, not everything about the current trend in the weather is positive. Two weeks ago in our blog “Drying in the PNW?” we wrote about the transition from one of the wettest Decembers in memory for the region to a “brief” dry spell. This change has turned out to be not-so-brief, and is rapidly pulling the rug ... » read more | |
| Wednesday Jan 28, 2026 | |
| The big story this week continues to be the winter storm and bitter cold spread across the eastern half of the country. From freezing temperatures in Texas (see ‘ERCOT’s Handling of the Cold’) to freeze-offs in the Northeast (see ‘Bracing for Impact’), Energy GPS has been covering the impacts of the extreme winter weather across various natural gas and power markets. The Midwest was one of the hardest hit regions with many cities dealing with snow and ice, along with overnight lows dipping well below 0 degrees F. The figure below shows average Midwest temperature forecasts going back to January 13th. Yesterday’s forecast is on the far right. Moving left to right shows how the intensity of the cold grew over several days as the blues became darker ... » read more | |