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| Wednesday Mar 5, 2025 | |
| Most of the country will be springing forward this Sunday, changing their clocks and losing out on an hour of sleep. California, however, has gotten a head start to the spring trends. We’ve been covering the low net loads and low prices for both SP15 and NP15 in our most recent CAISO market flashes, as well as rising curtailments in a recent article. All of these are commonplace in the spring, but the Golden State sprang forward early this year as February looked like the new March. In our latest battery report, we explored how this February’s negative prices impacted the CAISO battery fleet. Read on for a sneak peek. Last spring, both DAM and RTM midday prices in SP15 started routinely dropping into deeply negative territory, with prices falling much lower than we had seen in ... » read more | |
| Tuesday Mar 4, 2025 | |
| The winter of 2025 has unleashed a series of intense cold spells, with February delivering one of the season’s most brutal surges across the Lower 48 and Canada—driving significant market shifts explored in our latest monthly report. January saw record-high heating degree day (HDD) accumulation, driving up power and natural gas demand and leading to significant storage withdrawals. February continued the trend, with colder-than-normal conditions impacting regions east of the Rockies, pushing natural gas prices above $4.00 and sustaining that level through bid-week. The demand profile saw fluctuations across the country, with the Upper Midwest experiencing modest price increases and bottlenecks emerging in the Northeast due to infrastructure limitations. Figure 1 | Month HDD ... » read more | |
| Monday Mar 3, 2025 | |
| The renewable penetration within the Golden State continues to have an impact on the natural gas space. In the current gas year, CAISO has consistently produced less of its electricity through thermal generation as in-state solar and battery generation increase. The chart below shows the thermal component of the generation stack, as reported by CAISO. The current year (in blue) has come under the previous two for almost four straight months. Spring has always been a rough season for natural gas plants, with low electricity demand and strong river flows, but this year looks to set a new low bar. Figure 1 | CAISO Thermal 7 Day Average (MWa) To help us understand this change, let’s turn to the figure below. Here, we plot hourly CAISO generation data for a handful of recent ... » read more | |
| Friday Feb 28, 2025 | |
| The Washington Cap-and-Invest Program is now in its third compliance year, over half way through the first compliance period of 2023-2026. The emission cap for the program is shown below with a cap of 49 MMT of carbon in 2026, the final year of the first compliance period. Figure 1 | WA Cap-and-Invest Emission Cap We have been forecasting carbon emissions in Washington State since the start of the program and recently published our latest emission forecast in a Washington Carbon Market Flash titled “February 2025 Mark”. In this forecast, we estimate monthly emissions for 2025 and annual emissions for 2026 along with reported emissions for 2023 from Ecology and our estimated emissions for 2024. Emissions are reported for each major category covered by ... » read more | |
| Thursday Feb 27, 2025 | |
| The last week has seen a deluge of rainfall showing up in Portland, as well as across much of the Pacific Northwest (to the extent that one EGPS colleague’s basement is currently flooded). The plentiful precipitation, combined with the warmer temperatures that have been present in the region, have prompted some swings from the PNW hydro system. Once again, the atmospheric river weather pattern that moved inland from the Pacific ocean largely missed northern Washington, Idaho, and British Columbia, its strength focused a little further to the South. This has been the pattern throughout the fall and winter, with any storms primarily targeting Oregon, southern Idaho, and further south into California and the Sierra Nevada mountains. Figure 1 | February Precipitation ... » read more | |
| Wednesday Feb 26, 2025 | |
| February 2025 has been quite cold in Alberta with over 1600 HDDs racked up this month. The figure below shows cumulative HDDs for December through February going back to 2017. While January was below average in terms of cold weather for the province, February was the coldest it’s been since 2021. Forecasts were covered in blue for much of this month, indicating below normal temperatures with most days in Calgary averaging below 0 degrees. Temperatures have taken a sharp turn in the last few days as highs are now over 40 degrees while overnight lows are just below freezing. With strong renewable generation and low demand over the weekend, pool price averaged under $2 in the heavy load last Sunday. The province is looking forward to their early start to spring, but for this blog ... » read more | |
| Tuesday Feb 25, 2025 | |
| The latest EGPS special report draws a fascinating parallel between basketball's coveted double-double and triple-double stats and the performance metrics within the western U.S. energy markets. Just as star athletes achieve these milestones by excelling in multiple categories, the energy sector's "stats" are driven by certain factors such as renewables, hydro, and natural gas performance. The report highlights how achieving a "triple-double" in this space is a rare feat, as strong solar and hydro outputs often reduce the need for natural gas generation—as seen particularly in California. This dynamic creates a unique set of challenges and opportunities for grid operators and other sectors in the market. Figure 1 | Double-Double or Triple-Double tied to West Energy Sector A closer ... » read more | |
| Monday Feb 24, 2025 | |
| The norm for North American winters is for conditions to worsen through November and December with shorter, colder days. Then January brings the climax, filled with winter storms and deep snow. Finally, February and March bring a closing act, with snow turning to slush and some, wildly optimistically, choosing to start wearing shorts again. This year broke from the mold for much of the US, with our focus today on the Midcontinent ISO. Here, February is the new January, with peak net loads making a surprise appearance in the second month of the year. Figure 1 | MISO Net Load 7 Day moving Average – Last 3 Years (YoY) The figure above gives a moving average of net load (load minus wind and solar) within MISO over this year and the past two. While January 2024 stands as the highest ... » read more | |
| Friday Feb 21, 2025 | |
| The United States has been experiencing a significant winter weather event this week. An arctic blast dropping deep into the center of the US towards the Gulf Coast with frigid temperatures expected to last the entire week. The map below from Pivotal Weather depicts the observed low temperature from Thursday morning. Most of the MISO and SPP states experienced negative temperatures. Texas was cold, but the lows mostly stayed out of the single digits. The forecast low for Friday is still quite cold but somewhat warmer than these values. From there, things will begin to warm up considerably. Figure 1 | Observed Low Temperatures on February 20, 2025 (Pivotal Weather) https://www.pivotalweather.com/maps.php?ds=rtma_ru&p=ndfd_sfctmin&r=conus So how did the electricity markets handle ... » read more | |
| Thursday Feb 20, 2025 | |
| ERCOT is in the midst of a late winter surge in demand, thanks to temperatures plunging in the past two days down into the teens (and even single digits in parts of the state) overnight. This is pushing peak system load up a projected 20 GW today compared to the start of the week just three days ago. At the same time, ERCOT wind is falling off hard, dropping 13 GW over the same period. This makes for a swing in net load of over 30 GW, and is pushing system net load up to a new high for the winter so far (the past three winters, in fact!). Figure 1 | ERCOT Net Load, Moving 7-Day Average We see the impact in the DA auction results from yesterday, pushing the North Hub HL price up to within striking distance of $200 (and a morning peak of around $900). These ... » read more | |