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Wednesday Dec 2, 2015   
As we came out of the long holiday weekend and began trading for the first day of December, Midc's heavy load took a turn to the upside as it went from trading in the mid $20's to indexing at $32.65. Such an increase pushed the SP15-Midc heavy load spread to a mere $0.56.  At this level, MW's that usually flow down into California via the AC intertie are told to stay at home.   Figure 1 | PACI Day-Ahead Flows - Hourly Part of this run up at the Midc was due to the Centralia unit going offline over Thanksgiving and not coming back by December 1st. » read more
Tuesday Dec 1, 2015   
On November 26th, 2015 Caiso posted an transmission derate notice for Palo Verde starting today HE 8 and lasting through December 11th, 2015 HE 16.   Figure 1 | CAISO Derate Posting - Palo Verde We mentioned the derate prior to the day-ahead market trading yesterday morning.  As you can see, the derated capacity was dropping by 1,800 MW starting HE 8 and lasting the rest of the day.  This was going to cause some problems on the CAISO side during the evening ramp hours as every MW is needed to help keep the implied heat rates somewhat reasonable. » read more
Monday Nov 30, 2015   
As we all get back to work after the long Thanksgiving weekend, there are a could couple of key elements that will be the focus now that December is upon us.  The first is the weather of course, where the longer term (11-15 day) is showing above normal temperatures across the country.  This led to the new prompt month contract (January 2016) to shift down $0.08 last Friday to put its close right at the level the December contract rolled off at. Figure 1 | NOAA 8-14 day Forecast If this sticks around, the front months will have no choice but to drive lower ... » read more
Wednesday Nov 25, 2015   
Approximately 50 million turkeys will be consumed this week as we approach the Thanksgiving holidays.  The average size turkey is approximately 15 pounds, and using Butterballs suggested cooking time, it would take 5 hours in the oven.  An electric oven would consume 2kwh for every hour in the oven.  So a whole turkey would take 10kwh multiplied by 50 million turkeys… that’s a lot of energy usage! (see Figure 1) Unfortunately not everyone uses an electric oven as many homes use other fuels including natural gas, propane, and wood.  ... » read more
Monday Nov 23, 2015   
In our first COI newsletter we discussed the history of COI.  In our second COI newsletter we estimated the value of flows on COI.  This newsletter examines how the value of COI is distrusted north and south of COB.    In our research we came across the cartoon above, by Carl Bonelli, which was published in the Oregon Journal on June 30th, 1964.  At that time they were debating whether to build the COI, how to fund it, and how the benefits should be distributed.  The debate then was largely the same as it is today – increased ... » read more
Friday Nov 20, 2015   
In a recent EnergyGPS Newsletter we provided a brief history of the California Oregon Intertie (COI), also known as “The AC” or “Paci” or Path 66.  As the CAISO expands its footprint into the Northwest via the Energy Imbalance Market (EIM), the use and related value of the COI may change.  And everyone involved in commerce using the COI wants to make sure that they keep their “fair” share of value and make sure that they get paid for the resources they bring to the market.  This Newsletter presents data related to the ... » read more
Thursday Nov 19, 2015   
This is the first in a series of three newsletters related to the COI. One of the most important assets in the western electricity markets is the intertie connecting the Pacific Northwest’s Lower Columbia River system to Northern California.  The 4800 MW line, known as the California Oregon Intertie (COI), consists of three jointly owned 500 kV AC lines from Oregon to northern California which together are recognized as Path 66.  These lines come together at the Malin and Captain Jack substations located in southern Oregon – collectively these ... » read more
Wednesday Nov 18, 2015   
Yesterday morning, I awoke (2:30 am) to gusting winds prior to sitting down and starting my day.  The first thing that came to mind; is my trampoline still in my yard?  I say this because it was only 11 months ago when I was flying back from a conference in New Orleans via Los Angeles when I call from my wife stating that our trampoline is up against our neighbors house.  Now, what you have to know is our house is south facing, we have a hedge that is 12 feet in the air and the neighbors house is 120 ft away from where the trampoline was to begin ... » read more
Tuesday Nov 17, 2015   
The rally in the alley for the front months of the Nymex contracts has all but gone away this morning and the early morning trading is down $0.08, putting the December contract at the $2.30 mark. This was exactly where it was prior to the weather forecasts showing colder weather moving into the Midwest and some parts of the Ohio Valley in the 6-10 day period and extending into the 11-15 day timeframe. Figure 1 | NOAA 6-10 Day Weather Forecast Coming out of the weekend, the pre-market open on the Nymex has the front months up another $0.07.  Once people got ... » read more
Monday Nov 16, 2015   
As the forecasts started to show some colder weather moving through the West and Central part of the country last Friday, the prompt month Nymex contracts shifted up $0.08-0.10. Figure 1 | NOAA 6-10 Day Forecast It is ironic that it was not until the blue weather pattern started to take shape that the nuclear fleet units started to return to service as Saturday saw a big shift down in the MWs offline, especially in the Eastern part of the country. Figure 2 | Nuclear Plant MWs Offline - Daily The trend continued on for Sunday and this morning, when NRC reported ... » read more
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