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Friday Jul 24, 2015   
When the EIA number came out yesterday, the majority of people saw it as a 61 BCF delta increase day on day.  Expectations in the market ranged between 65 - 78 BCF with the heavy hitters around 68 BCF. Figure 1 | EIA Storage Table Such a result pushed the prompt month contract up the $2.95 mark quickly as the market took it as bullish.  It was realized that the implied flows (+68) did not match the delta week on week change (+61).   If you look closely at this week's regional breakout, there is a 'C' next to the East number for this week. » read more
Thursday Jul 23, 2015   
The highly anticipated El Nino season and its promise of a cool temperatures across the east/south has yet to materialize as warm temperatures drove up net load across North America on Monday.  Demand hovered around 500 gigs on Sunday and Tuesday with the highest load of the season peaking coming in at 528.9 GW on the 20th. Figure 1 | North American load by ISO - Daily Peak You can see in Figure 1, most of the incremental demand is showing up in PJM, MISO and Texas.  The West has cooled off some over the course of the week with the Pacific ... » read more
Wednesday Jul 22, 2015   
What a difference a few days makes in the Great Northwest!!! Last night you could hear the birds chirping and the trees swaying in the wind and by the time you went to bed the windows were open and the fresh air abound throughout the house.  It was like you were camping in your own house. From a grid perspective, the load profile shifted down quite a bit yesterday as the high temperatures around Portland were in the low 80's.  This is roughly 20 degrees cooler than the high temperatures we saw over the weekend where some areas were close to triple ... » read more
Tuesday Jul 21, 2015   
In a previous newsletter we called attention to the increased SP 15 HRs for the summer or 2015 compared to last year. The analysis identified weak imports as a primary driver of the strong clears.  To recap: Figure 1 breaks down heavy load average load by 2,000 MW bins (x-axis) and plots out the overall SP15 heat rates (y-axis).  The individual data points and trend-lines are color coordinated by year. With the blue line (2015) well above the orange line (2014) at all load levels, we can see there has been a fundamental increase in SP heat rates for ... » read more
Monday Jul 20, 2015   
 Nuclear Power Plants run on a relatively predictable refueling cycle with every unit required to refuel between every 18 and 24 months.  These refueling cycles typical fall during the spring or the fall, also known as outage season. Since the unit must come completely offline for an extended period of time, operators schedule refueling cycles during weak power demand months to limit revenue loss.  However all those outages add up and can have a significant effect on the supply stack.  Typically natural gas generation ramps ... » read more
Friday Jul 17, 2015   
After some cool temperatures and even some rain, Portland prepares for another heat wave with highs possibly hitting triple digits over the weekend.  The majority of the heat is expected along the Cascades as the inland cities are looking at highs in the upper 80's/low 90's.  The warmer weather will be short lived as the local forecasters are calling for the highs to drop back down into the upper 70's/low 80's in both Portland and Seattle by Tuesday. Figure 1 | Portland Temperatures - Actual/Forecast Once this heat spell passes we will be within ... » read more
Thursday Jul 16, 2015   
SP15 heat rates for the HL average are up a full point for June and July compared to last year as the former averaged around a 10 heat rate and the later so far is sitting around an 11.0. Prior to these two months, the January through May HRs saw little variance in the heat rates as 2015 was up by 0.06 of a point across the months. So what has changed you ask?  Two things come to mind, the first being loads tend to increase as we get closer to summer.  This year saw an above average June when it came to loads while July has been off and on depending on the ... » read more
Wednesday Jul 15, 2015   
Towards the end of last week, we reported (in an EnergyGPS Natural Gas Flash Report) that there was an issue with the NOVA Clearwater compressor.  Such an issue was going to have an impact on the flow of gas out of Canada and into the Western part of the country starting on the 13th and lasting as long as it takes to diagnose the issue and get it resolved.  This led to the gas markets jumping up quite a bit over the past two days as cash SoCal border has shifted up to $3.055, which puts it $0.10 over Henry Hub cash.   Figure 1 | SoCal Border/Henry Hub ... » read more
Tuesday Jul 14, 2015   
Nymex gas enjoyed run yesterday with prompt month trading up nearly 10 Cents on the day (going from $2.766 to $2.866). So what caused such a jump as we head into the middle portion of July?  From the supply side, production is down about 1 BCF compared to last week.  On the demand side, power burns continue to be strong given the load profiles across the East and Texas are increasing in the short term.  From a weather perspective, the forecasts are showing an increase in the CDD's for the 1-15 day weather runs, especially in the East region. » read more
Monday Jul 13, 2015   
As cool temperatures move across the West we were offered a short reprieve from strong power prices as the system settles back into a “typical” range with Mid C clearing below the CAISO markets for the weekend.  Prior to this, the Pacific Northwest (PNW) struggled to balance the system therefore priced itself over the rest of the West.  There were a couple of times Midc traded to levels well above SP15/NP15 that MW were exported out of the state of CA and into the PNW.  Below are the average temperatures in Portland compared to the ... » read more
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