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| Monday Jun 3, 2019 | |
| Heading into last summer, ERCOT's implied heat rates were beyond levels needed for every natural gas to be running as the grid was exposed to the coal retirements seen to start the year (January 2018). As it turned out, all hands were on deck as the grid was able to keep the lights on without really feeling too frantic most of the summer. When you look back on it, Mother Nature was in a good mood when it came to how much wind she would have hitting the grid during the month of August. Figure 1 | ERCOT's Monthly Wind Breakdown If you look at the chart above, the top pane represents the calculated capacity factor for all the wind that showed up in ERCOT by month since 2016. The bottom pane illustrates the two components of the capacity fact, the first being the ... » read more | |
| Friday May 31, 2019 | |
| State legislators in the Western United States have been busy in recent months. The following legislation has passed in 2019[1]: SB 358 – Nevada RPS: Current RPS set at 25%. Increases RPS to 50% by 2030. Requires 100% carbon free by 2050. (Signed into law on Earth Day) SB 489 – New Mexico Energy Transition Act: Renewable requirement equals 50% by 2030, 80% by 2040, and 100% by 2045. (Signed into law on March 22nd) HB 1261 – Colorado Carbon Emissions Reductions: Targets GHG reductions below 2005 levels of 26% by 2025, 50% by 2030, and 90% by 2050. (Signed into law on May 30th) SB 5116 – Washington 100% Clean: No coal in rates by 2025, 80% carbon free + 20% WECC RECs by 2030, and 100% carbon free by 2045. (Signed into law on May 7th) HB 2020 – Oregon Cap and ... » read more | |
| Thursday May 30, 2019 | |
| There has been a lot of buzz recently over the series finale of Game of Thrones. As perhaps the most popular fantasy TV show came to a close, winter also slid into the background. It is no coincidence that with the end of the show, summer is just now making its way onto the board with less than a month to go before the seasons officially change. However, we have already seen heat flare up throughout the Northeast with cold temperatures making their way out of the region. Figure 1 | Summer is Coming Taking a look at the temperatures in Washington DC, highs actually reached up into the 90s over the long weekend. This caused demand to look more like a weekday despite the off peak lull. Both the South and the West throughout the PJM footprint also saw high temperatures driving demand past ... » read more | |
| Wednesday May 29, 2019 | |
| This has been a mild spring for most of the country. The cooling degree day count has trended below normal for most of the Lower 48 outside of the Southeast. The lack of cooling load has kept the power burn demand in check allowing a robust injection season. But over the past week we are seeing a big change in temperatures particularly in Georgia and the Carolinas. Daytime highs have soared to near triple digits. The associated climb in demand has caused a big shift in the regional supply/demand balances. As a result we are expecting the EIA to report a withdrawal for the South Central salt storage caverns in this week's inventory report. Figure 1 | Atlanta Temperature History with Average and Forecast The net load for the Southeast is now well above the last two years. » read more | |
| Tuesday May 28, 2019 | |
| If you have followed the National Basketball Association (NBA) playoffs this year, you have once again seen the Golden State Warriors make it back to the Finals be sweeping the Portland Trailblazers after taking the Houston Rockets in 6 games. Over in the LeBron-less East, the Toronto Raptors took on the Milwaukee Bucks who were led by the Greek-Freak (Giannis Antetokounmpo). After going down 0-2 in the best of a seven game series, the Raptors rattled off four straight wins to capture the series 4-2. In the four wins, Kwahi Leonard illustrated why he is one of the best players in the league as he carried his team to victory on the road in the crucial game 5 and brought the Eastern Conference Championship to Toronto by dominating the boards and defensive end of the ... » read more | |
| Friday May 24, 2019 | |
| Memorial Day is right around the corner, which means we are fast approaching the summer peak load season in ERCOT. Earlier this month, ERCOT released its May 2019 Capacity, Demand, and Reserves Report (CDR). While the version published in May does not include the upcoming summer 2019 season, it does provide an update on changes in the generator queue, as well as changes to generator retirements (Gibbons Creek will be on indefinite mothball status after 6/1/2019). For the summer 2020 peak load season, ERCOT’s estimate of the planning reserve margin (percentage of generation resources above forecast peak load) is 10.5%. When calculating this value, ERCOT assigns a reliability percentage to each type of generation resource. Thermal resources (gas, coal) receive a 100% reliability ... » read more | |
| Thursday May 23, 2019 | |
| The first real heat wave hit the Northeast over this weekend giving the region a taste of summer. Temperatures picked up with highs reaching nearly 90 degrees drawing on cooling demand throughout the PJM footprint. The electrical demand brought generation online throughout the major ISOs just ahead of the official summer season. While the weather quickly moderated back down with Tuesday falling back within normal range, another hot flash is expected to make its way into the region with temperatures relatively close to what we saw earlier this week. Taking a look ISO’s reactions should give us some idea of how the next hot spell should affect the region. Figure 1 | Actual & Forecast Temperatures in Columbus, Ohio PJM saw the worst of it with the warm temperatures gaining ground ... » read more | |
| Wednesday May 22, 2019 | |
| if you have been watching the National Basketball Association (NBA) playoffs over the past couple of weeks, you have seen that the Golden State Warriors took care of business by sweeping the Portland Trailblazers in the Western Conference Finals. The way it works is two teams play a best of 7 game series to see who will advance to the finals. That means that the first team to 4 wins advantage and as it turned out the Warriors swept the Blazers by winning the first four games, despite having three key players injured. That is quite impressive but what is more impressive is the fact that this will be the Warriors 5th straight appearance in the NBA Finals. Figure 1 | Golden State Warriors Advancing to the NBA Finals This is an impressive feat if you stop and think ... » read more | |
| Tuesday May 21, 2019 | |
| There is some clarity starting to develop in the forward weather models. Over the past week NOAA and WSI both published their forecasts for June confirming an above normal bias for the East and a below normal bias for the West. The outlooks are extending the near term forecasts and now have a higher power burn estimate for the Gulf and Northeast. The path of increased demand runs right along the Transco Pipeline which utilizes Gulf storage caverns to meet the changes in pressures. While the East balancing is getting tighter, the West is going in the opposite direction. Not only are they going to see strong Pacific Northwest hydro power output over the next few weeks the weather models are dropping the probability for heat events. That is putting downward pressure on ... » read more | |
| Monday May 20, 2019 | |
| This past Friday, the daily EnergyGPS Newsletter Blog focused on the CAISO Summer Assessment report published recently while the weekly Newsletter Article titled 'Calfornia's Summer Balance' took a look at where the rubber was going to really meet the road come Q3-2019. If you are new to the EnergyGPS Newsletter platform, here is a quick summary of the product offerings at your disposal for a nominal monthly/annual fee. Figure 1 | EnergyGPS Newsletter Platform The figure above details each product offering in a little more detail as the daily blogs are free to anyone who signs up. We have a Silver package that gives you access to the historical daily blogs as the content is informative and can be re-read at anytime. The Gold package gives the user access to ... » read more | |
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