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| Friday Sep 20, 2024 | |
| A few weeks ago, we wrote about the increase in solar capacity in MISO over the past few years. Today, we wanted to expand that topic to renewables in MISO more generally, and the increase in renewable market share. Market share of a resource is defined as the total MWh of generation from that resource, divided by the total MWh of load, over some time period. It’s specifically post-curtailment, generated MWh—in other words, market share is the percentage of load served by a specific resource. The combined wind + solar market share in MISO has been hovering around 15% for the past couple of years (see this report for more about why we think that is an important value), but has climbed to 16.5% for 2024 YTD. Figure 1 | Wind and Solar Combined Market Share in MISO, 2017 – ... » read more | |
| Thursday Sep 19, 2024 | |
| Daylight Savings Time (DST) carries the motto of ‘spring forward and fall back’ given the hour time change that comes with each season mentioned. California’s renewable energy has its own ‘DST’ acronym., which stands for Daylight Sunny Times and its motto is ‘spring curtailments and fall back to more of the same’. Our latest Article “Spring/Fall Curtailments – CAISO” digs into the changes taking place on the CAISO grid as the West continues its transition from hot summer to cool fall. Figure 1 | CAISO Curtailment Daily Summary The heat wave that moved through California just after Labor Day has given way to moderate temperatures across the state, while keeping the sunny skies across the desert landscape where ... » read more | |
| Wednesday Sep 18, 2024 | |
| EnergyGPS has a brand-new dashboard available for our natural gas clients. Last year, we added our West NG Pipeline Capacity dashboard. It displays current flows for several pipelines in the West and updates throughout the day as pipeline maintenance is posted to reflect the current capacity of those pipes. It includes data for PG&E, SoCal Gas, Northwest Pipeline, and more! Just last week, we added our East NG Pipeline Capacity dashboard. This dashboard displays current flows and forecasted capacity for pipelines in the eastern US. The figure below is an example of what you can expect in the dashboard. It displays data for Station 107 Mills, Station 167, and Station 801 on NGPL. Four other points for NGPL are included in the dashboard, but not shown below. The green lines represent ... » read more | |
| Tuesday Sep 17, 2024 | |
| With the first half of September in the rear-view mirror, we will be transitioning from summer to fall soon, as we have noticed subtle changes in the atmosphere, becoming increasingly noticeable already across some Lower 48 regions. Overnight temperatures have started to dip, bringing a refreshing coolness that hints at the approaching fall season. The days are also growing shorter, with the sunrise coming later and the sun setting earlier, marking a clear shift in the rhythm of the day. These signs signal the foreseeable arrival of autumn, as summer's heat gradually gives way to crisper mornings and softer, golden evenings. This seasonal transition not only brings a change in temperature and daylight but also sets the stage for fall’s energy landscape patterns. The subtle chill in ... » read more | |
| Monday Sep 16, 2024 | |
| September in the West came in like a lion and now looks much more like a lamb. Extreme heat quickly faded to average to below-average temperatures. Nowhere has this been more true than southern California, where the LA basin hit highs in the 100s just over a week ago and now the forecast calls for a long stretch maxing out in the mid-70s. SP15’s power markets went through the same see-saw with those 7 days making the difference between the highest prices of the year and negative settles. Figure 1 | SP15 DA & RT LMP The above figure shows SP15’s hourly LMP in the day ahead market (blue bars) and two stages of the CAISO real time market (yellow and red lines). For the first time in a while the day ahead market hit negative settles, then the subsequent real time market ... » read more | |
| Friday Sep 13, 2024 | |
| In reviewing the August Monthly Renewable Report, I was reminded of a scene from Woody Allen’s 1977 Academy Award Best Picture Winner, “Annie Hall”, shown in Figure 1. In the film, two elderly ladies are complaining about the food at their hotel in the Catskill Mountains. One mentions that the food is terrible, to which the other responds, “I know, and such small portions!” Figure 1| Annie Hall Movie poster, 1977 What’s the connection? The last three months for solar as-gen pricing in CAISO and ERCOT have seen smaller and smaller slices (capture ratio) from a shrinking entrée (RTC), as illustrated for ERCOT in Figure 2 below. The solar weighted price for ERCOT Houston in August 2024 was $32.32, compared with ... » read more | |
| Thursday Sep 12, 2024 | |
| It has been well established that renewable penetration in market leads to changes in thermal dispatch. Increased solar capacity in particular leads to a glut of supply in the middle of the day, drives down midday net load and stretches the net load/thermal demand evening ramp as solar falls off a cliff in the late afternoon. We have observed the pattern clearly in ERCOT so far this year. Most of the attention for changes to thermal dispatch behavior usually falls on an ISO’s natural gas fleet. But in ERCOT, starting back in the final quarter of last year, we saw significant changes to how the states coal units were utilized. This was the topic of a Special Report back in January, “ERCOT’s Hazy Horizon”. Our latest Article ... » read more | |
| Wednesday Sep 11, 2024 | |
| CAISO’s big heat event, which overlapped with triple-digit temperatures in the Pacific Northwest, occurred last Thursday and all eyes were on the California grid to see how it would handle the heat. In the days before the event, we covered the fundamentals and all the pertinent information in several of CAISO market flashes. We discussed the record-breaking coastal heat, as well as the flexible generation found in CAISO hydro and batteries. In the aftermath, we’ve covered the role of batteries in the event more in depth in two battery reports. In the first report, published last Friday and titled ‘A Supporting Role for the CAISO Fleet’, we covered the disappointing real-time arbitrage opportunities for batteries, as well as the lack of overall discharge. The figure ... » read more | |
| Tuesday Sep 10, 2024 | |
| In August 2024, escalating congestion costs at the SPP South hub significantly impacted the grid, drawing widespread attention. Demand was strong this August, surpassing 2022 levels and matching August 2023. However, increased wind generation contributed to a lower net load than in the past two years. Figure 1 | SPP 12x24 Supply & Demand Profile From a heat rate perspective, this August witnessed substantially higher day-ahead heat rates at the South hub compared to the past two years, with HE17 reaching an average of 56.8. In contrast, the North hub's day-ahead rates dipped slightly below the August 2023 level of 44.6, averaging 30.3 for HE17—26.5 points lower than the South hub. Figure 2 | SPP Marginal Cost of Congestion (MCC) Profile The graph above in figure 2 ... » read more | |
| Monday Sep 9, 2024 | |
| Last week saw extreme heat hit Southern California’s coastal region creating a once-every-couple years event for power demand within the Golden State. The simultaneous heat in the Desert Southwest and Pacific Northwest moved the scarcity conversation to the forefront of conversation amongst market participants. This makes sense given that years past have seen the start of September deliver fireworks as the natural gas space was constrained by restrictions tied to Aliso Canyon’s storage and transport capacity. The power sector was limited by flexible generation as lower hydro years and lower battery capacity were in play. The outcome over the past few days is interesting as the price levels hit the highest of the summer but were nowhere close to the ... » read more | |