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| Monday Sep 30, 2024 | |
| Prior to the influx of renewables mandated by the State of California, the summer-time peaking load relied on both transmission flows from adjacent balancing regions, base load nuclear and in-state natural gas-fired generators that sat in the LA Basin, the middle portion of the CAISO footprint known as ZP26 and Northern California. Over the past few years, the once common relationship between supply and demand has given way to the influx of renewable energy known as wind, solar and now batteries. There are still moments when the grid relies heavily on the ‘old school’ supply/demand balance as net load delivers a shape that exposes the later afternoon and evening ramp block of hours. Once we transition to lower power demand days, the days of a slow transition ... » read more | |
| Friday Sep 27, 2024 | |
| The figure below shows the daily low and average SP15 RTM prices from January – August 2024. This spring, average daily prices settled at negative numbers on some days while hourly prices reached as low as negative -$103/MWh. Across Q2 2024, the SP15 solar capture ratio (solar-weighted average divided by all-hours simple average) was -40%. These are pretty shocking numbers! Figure 1 | Daily Average SP15 RTM Prices, 2024 As we have discussed in many of our reports, prices reached these low levels for two reasons – (1) grid operations relied on renewable curtailments to balance the system (2) solar projects priced their energy in the CAISO at the negative of the REC value. Turns out there is a bit of a short squeeze occurring in the REC markets with 2024 vintage PCC1 ... » read more | |
| Thursday Sep 26, 2024 | |
| Coming into the summer there were questions all around about how the PJM grid would fare. The expansion of data centers around DC and the growth of crypto facilities threatened to produce further structural load increases in the continuation of the pattern that has been playing out not only in PJM but in other areas around the country. Conversations swirled in PJM’s Reserve Certainty Senior Task Force meetings about the potential shortfalls of the ISO’s reserve requirements with adjustments being made throughout the spring and summer. On the other side of the equation, PJM shared in the explosive growth in installed solar capacity along with the rising renewable market in MISO and continued buildout in the more established CAISO and ERCOT fleets. With ... » read more | |
| Wednesday Sep 25, 2024 | |
| South to North congestion has been a key feature in SP15 and NP15 day-ahead and real-time pricing in the last two weeks. With lowered demand and abundant solar, the midday SP15 prices have sunk below the $0/MWh mark for several days. This is good news for SP15 batteries, which can charge during negative price intervals while still receiving double digit prices for dispatch in the evening ramp. The real-time arbitrage opportunities during these days have been higher, but the timing of the low prices sometimes made it difficult for SP15 batteries to achieve. Building on our previous battery reports about missed charging opportunities, our latest battery report, titled ‘A Swing and a Miss for the CAISO Fleet’, digs deeper into the congestion of last week, as well as the CAISO ... » read more | |
| Monday Sep 23, 2024 | |
| It is hard to believe that we are already looking the last full week of September 2024, which means that it is officially Fall as the seasons changed over the weekend. Mother Nature has displayed fall-like weather across the West for the past 10 days while a little hiccup is on display early in the week before reverting back to the cooler conditions. The modest daytime highs ans cooler overnight lows gave us a glimpse of how the world looks to be turning as we move into October. The midday block of hours is going to display S to N congestion between the two gen hubs in California while the adjacent regions will continue to price themselves accordingly with the Mid-C's marginal cost of energy is the intertie export when wind is modest and then it flips to trading flat to ... » read more | |
| Friday Sep 20, 2024 | |
| A few weeks ago, we wrote about the increase in solar capacity in MISO over the past few years. Today, we wanted to expand that topic to renewables in MISO more generally, and the increase in renewable market share. Market share of a resource is defined as the total MWh of generation from that resource, divided by the total MWh of load, over some time period. It’s specifically post-curtailment, generated MWh—in other words, market share is the percentage of load served by a specific resource. The combined wind + solar market share in MISO has been hovering around 15% for the past couple of years (see this report for more about why we think that is an important value), but has climbed to 16.5% for 2024 YTD. Figure 1 | Wind and Solar Combined Market Share in MISO, 2017 – ... » read more | |
| Thursday Sep 19, 2024 | |
| Daylight Savings Time (DST) carries the motto of ‘spring forward and fall back’ given the hour time change that comes with each season mentioned. California’s renewable energy has its own ‘DST’ acronym., which stands for Daylight Sunny Times and its motto is ‘spring curtailments and fall back to more of the same’. Our latest Article “Spring/Fall Curtailments – CAISO” digs into the changes taking place on the CAISO grid as the West continues its transition from hot summer to cool fall. Figure 1 | CAISO Curtailment Daily Summary The heat wave that moved through California just after Labor Day has given way to moderate temperatures across the state, while keeping the sunny skies across the desert landscape where ... » read more | |
| Wednesday Sep 18, 2024 | |
| EnergyGPS has a brand-new dashboard available for our natural gas clients. Last year, we added our West NG Pipeline Capacity dashboard. It displays current flows for several pipelines in the West and updates throughout the day as pipeline maintenance is posted to reflect the current capacity of those pipes. It includes data for PG&E, SoCal Gas, Northwest Pipeline, and more! Just last week, we added our East NG Pipeline Capacity dashboard. This dashboard displays current flows and forecasted capacity for pipelines in the eastern US. The figure below is an example of what you can expect in the dashboard. It displays data for Station 107 Mills, Station 167, and Station 801 on NGPL. Four other points for NGPL are included in the dashboard, but not shown below. The green lines represent ... » read more | |
| Tuesday Sep 17, 2024 | |
| With the first half of September in the rear-view mirror, we will be transitioning from summer to fall soon, as we have noticed subtle changes in the atmosphere, becoming increasingly noticeable already across some Lower 48 regions. Overnight temperatures have started to dip, bringing a refreshing coolness that hints at the approaching fall season. The days are also growing shorter, with the sunrise coming later and the sun setting earlier, marking a clear shift in the rhythm of the day. These signs signal the foreseeable arrival of autumn, as summer's heat gradually gives way to crisper mornings and softer, golden evenings. This seasonal transition not only brings a change in temperature and daylight but also sets the stage for fall’s energy landscape patterns. The subtle chill in ... » read more | |
| Monday Sep 16, 2024 | |
| September in the West came in like a lion and now looks much more like a lamb. Extreme heat quickly faded to average to below-average temperatures. Nowhere has this been more true than southern California, where the LA basin hit highs in the 100s just over a week ago and now the forecast calls for a long stretch maxing out in the mid-70s. SP15’s power markets went through the same see-saw with those 7 days making the difference between the highest prices of the year and negative settles. Figure 1 | SP15 DA & RT LMP The above figure shows SP15’s hourly LMP in the day ahead market (blue bars) and two stages of the CAISO real time market (yellow and red lines). For the first time in a while the day ahead market hit negative settles, then the subsequent real time market ... » read more | |