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Wednesday Jan 24, 2018   
ISONE recently released an "Operational Fuel-Security Analysis" report which examines the ISO's ability to reliably meet winter power demand as far out as 2024/2025.  As the report name indicates, the analysis primarily covers the grid's rapid conversion to natural gas and the operational risks that comes with relying on a single fuel source.  ... » read more
Tuesday Jan 23, 2018   
At EnergyGPS we love to see outliers in a data sets. It helps us to draw conclusions about supply demand dynamics in an extreme situation. For the past two winters, the warm conditions have left us in the dark as to how the PJM system would react noting the large amount of new combined cycle gas generation and subsequent retirement of over 35 GWs of coal capacity. The ... » read more
Monday Jan 22, 2018   
Last year at this time the west had the makings of an extremely robust water year.  Figure 1 shows the snow water equivalent (SWE) as a percent of normal last year at this time in the various states of the WECC.  While California's in-state totals aren't shown on this map, their source is the Sierra-Nevada's, which was 160-200% of normal last year at this ... » read more
Friday Jan 19, 2018   
EnergyGPS Consulting has been spending a lot of time in SPP lately. What is happening there with the wind build out is wild. From 2014 until the present they’ve added 12,000 MW of wind, bringing total installed capacity to approximately 20,000 MW. SPP has only had an integrated energy and ancillary services market with both day ahead and real time settlements since ... » read more
Thursday Jan 18, 2018   
ERCOT has been an early mover on renewable power. The Lone Star State reached over 9 GW of wind capacity as early as 2013. CAISO solar was still near infancy during the period with less than 2 GW in capacity. Even with the substantial wind portfolio in Texas, the renewable build-out is far from complete. Several projects have ... » read more
Wednesday Jan 17, 2018   
The EIA Drilling Productivity Report (DPR) was released today, providing some guidance for February natural gas production.  Before we dive into the new estimates let's have a quick recap of the rather volatile numbers we have seen over the last couple weeks. Heading into the end of 2017 we saw natural gas volumes continue to test new highs with total ... » read more
Tuesday Jan 16, 2018   
Last week we discussed the recent changes to the NGTL system in Alberta. A large increase in production plus a very warm December has put the current storage situation at record levels heading into next summer. As a result it is expected that there is not enough storage space in the province to handle the anticipated surplus. Over the past four months, the market has reacted ... » read more
Monday Jan 15, 2018   
This past week some news came out of California, regarding California regulators slashing not only the costs of closure, but also replacement guidance for the retirement of Diablo Canyon, previously announced to retire two years back come 2025.  The California Utilities Commission (CPUC) approved a plan for PG&E, the plant's owner, to recover ~$241 million in ... » read more
Friday Jan 12, 2018   
  Does anybody out there remember 2016? Just a few short weeks ago 2016 was referred to as “last year.” In electricity land, it is might as well be called ancient history. So much has changed so quickly. Nothing highlights this more than the ... » read more
Thursday Jan 11, 2018   
Brutally cold weather hit the ConUS last week. A rare weather event known as the bomb cyclone drove a dramatic temperature drop across the eastern United States. The bomb cyclone was caused by a sudden drop in pressure that pulled down cold arctic air. The storm that developed raged across the entire East Coast. Near freezing temperatures in Florida caused chilly iguanas to ... » read more
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