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| Tuesday Apr 30, 2024 | |
| The Pacific Northwest has always been known for its hydro system as the dams along the Columbia and Snake Rivers supplied several regions across the entire West for decades. Over the past few years, the system has become tighter in a sense that fish spill requirements have increased between April and the summer months where more water is diverted from the turbines and into the spillway. The need for reserve capacity and grid reliability associated to the load growth seen in recent years leaves entities needing to find it’s incremental megawatts via the transmission lines and not the hydro generators. Figure 1 | Pacific Northwest Hydro The added downward pressure on the regional hydro system can be associated to Mother Nature delivering drought-like conditions across ... » read more | |
| Monday Apr 29, 2024 | |
| The month of April has come and gone all the while watching the May natural gas contract going off the board under the $1.60 mark. This is after a period during the second week where the market fundamentals tried to get it to settle over the $2.00 mark as there was talk around production throwing in the towel, Mother Nature delivering some colder temperatures across demand regions and the LNG facilities returning to a state that would take over 12 BCF/d and send it off to other parts of the world. Figure 1 | Lower 48 Production The production levelized between 97-98 BCF/d, with some of the drop tied to planned maintenance. We have seen West Texas continue to settle in negative territory most of the month while other production basins are ending the month with weekend levels ... » read more | |
| Friday Apr 26, 2024 | |
| The renewable transition is in full force across the entire country where the West is dealing with the an abundant amount of solar generation despite the fact that the battery fleet continue to grow at a steadfast pace. In the South Central region, we have ERCOT holding first place when it comes to the combination of wind and solar generation with a sprinkle of battery capacity. SPP continues down the road of volatile wind output that pushes the north region into negative territory quite often in the light load and on weekends. MISO has its volume and regional balancing issues but there demand vs renewable ratio still keeps the price afloat for the time being. The further east we move, the less volume tied to renewables but that does not mean there is not a ... » read more | |
| Thursday Apr 25, 2024 | |
| The warmer temperatures of the past several days are having a marked impact on California’s hydro system. Not only is there more water in play (in an already healthy system), but we can observe changes in the dispatch behavior of CAISO hydro as projects follow the price signal and shape their flows and generation. Figure 1 | California State Total Snow Water Equivalent (Inches) Spring melt has brought over three inches of snow water equivalent (SWE) out of the Sierra Nevadas and elsewhere throughout the state in just the past three days. From 25.3 inches (133% of normal) this past Sunday the 21st, total snowpack has fallen to 22.2 inches, with plenty more to come over the remainder of the spring. The pattern may shift or slow in the short term with ... » read more | |
| Wednesday Apr 24, 2024 | |
| The negative midday pricing in SP15 and more recently NP15 this spring has provided the perfect charging opportunities for CAISO batteries. We covered the trend recently in an article titled ‘Renewing Negativity’. Since the publishing of the article, the trend has only continued with real-time SP15 prices often dipping between -$30/MWh to -$50/MWh in the middle of the day. The figure below is featured in our Daily CAISO Battery Dashboard and displays the CAISO fleet’s charging (blue) and discharging (orange) pattern alongside SP15 prices in black and NP15 real-time prices in brown. The pricing environment alongside the growing capacity of the fleet culminated in a new record-breaking dispatch last Sunday, April 21st. Figure 1 | Price Responsiveness – Battery ... » read more | |
| Tuesday Apr 23, 2024 | |
| Boxing matches consist of a battle between two individuals whom had up to 15 rounds to figure out a winner. The result was either by a knockout or voted on by the three judges that sat at ringside grading every time the bell was rung and the referee motions for the fighters to get back into their corner. Made for television, prior to streaming and cable, the hype focused on the likes of Muhammad Ali, Joe Frazier and George Foreman. If you went down a weight class or two you had Roberto Duran and Sugar Ray Leonard to root for as they were swift on their feet. As the battles continued over the year, the last big names to the core boxing ring have been Mike Tyson, Buster Douglas, and Evandar Holyfield. Figure 1 | The Boxing Ring Each name mentioned put ... » read more | |
| Monday Apr 22, 2024 | |
| Southern California is known for its beautiful weather, sandy beaches, and Hollywood. In the energy sector, specifically natural gas, it is associated to Aliso Canyon’s mishap just under a decade ago, a pipeline infrastructure that is aging and this term known as SoCal Sendouts. The first item mentioned is making progress to returning to its old self now that the CPUC has voted twice on allowing more molecules to be stored at the facility while the second is just getting older the more time that passes, but it is more stable now that say a few years ago when there was enough maintenance to restrict the flows from the Desert Southwest to the LA Basin. Figure 1 | SoCal Storage and Transport Volume The final item (SoCal Sendouts) is also know as SoCal Gas natural gas ... » read more | |
| Friday Apr 19, 2024 | |
| Production Cost Modeling (PCM) is a software tool utilized in the power sector where its output determines electric production costs and reliability to the grid given a set of generating resources, power demand (load), forward natural gas price curves and dispatch constraints. The tool is an essential part of any business model, especially with the current state of the electricity sector where load growth, plant retirements, changing hydro landscapes, the renewable transition and a carbon-free environment are at the forefront of conversation. Figure 1 | Production Cost Modeling Over the years, the EnergyGPS consulting client base continued to inquire about our PCM analysis, which led us to bring the software tool in-house and develop insights tied to the changing ... » read more | |
| Thursday Apr 18, 2024 | |
| It feels strange to talk about a day when the day-ahead auction produces on-peak hub prices of $15.21 in a market as a strong showing, but that is where we are in southern California. The SP15 auction result reaching that mark for today represents the first time the day-ahead LMP has reached double-digits since this past Saturday, and the highest block price overall in April. You have to go back to last month on March 30th to find a higher result, when the LMP was a whopping $20.02. Even then, today’s implied heat rate of 12.3 narrowly edges out the 11.3 number from back on the 30th. Figure 1 | Negative Midday Prices the Norm for SP15 The state of electricity prices in Southern California has been a frequent fodder for commentary going back to the last ... » read more | |
| Wednesday Apr 17, 2024 | |
| Our ERCOT Real-Time Dashboard is new and improved! Last week, we unveiled a new version of this dashboard with updated tables and figures. While much of the data remains the same, the new format offers a clean and concise breakdown of recent historical market data and short-term forecasts. The figure below is the first chart featured in the new and improved ERCOT Real-Time Dashboard. We’ve added net load actuals and the next day’s forecast along with thermal data, including thermal generation, thermal outages, and generation plus outages. Alongside real-time and day-ahead prices, the figure shows the connections between tight points on the grid in terms of high net loads, position in the thermal stack, and the price impact. Important inflection points are more easily ... » read more | |