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Monday Oct 24, 2016   
Over the past 6 weeks, Texas weather has been coming in quite a bit above normal with the Houston metro area staring at highs in the 90's as late as this past Wednesday.  Thursday and Friday saw temperatures drop and the forecast is calling for highs in the mid 80's this week. Figure 1 | Houston Temperatures - Actual vs. Forecast This big drop in temperatures led to the net load in ERCOT to shift down, which then put downward pressure on the demand for natural gas used to generate power.  As a result, the  spread between Houston Ship Channel (HSC) and ... » read more
Friday Oct 21, 2016   
We have done a lot of analysis over the last couple of years related to the CAISO EIM and the possibility of expanding the CAISO into a regional organization. There are plenty of studies estimating the benefits associated with expanding the CAISO in some capacity. For the most part these studies show benefits for both the CAISO and the balancing authorities that opt to join the CAISO. While we don’t always agree with the modeling assumptions or the magnitude of the benefits in these studies, we generally think that centralized markets work better and are more ... » read more
Thursday Oct 20, 2016   
Last Friday night, the routine of shuttling the kids to their respective 'futsal' training sessions (Braziallian type of soccer) when things got interesting as the calm before the storm arose and slammed Portland proper with a massive amount of rain that lasted a good 35-40 minutes.  In fact, earlier that day tornados touched down in Manzanita, OR which is a small coastal town.  The local news showed extensive damage along the main road leading to the Pacific Ocean.  The weather forecasters were expecting tornado like winds to move through the ... » read more
Wednesday Oct 19, 2016   
As move our way though October temperatures begin to decline as fall conditions set in across the US. Typically when we enter the shoulder months power burns hit their lows as temperatures gravitate toward that happy medium in which there is little cooling or heating demand.   However, power burns have remained strong through the first half of the month with October MTD averaging 26.7 BCF/d.  Temperatures have remained above average across the majority of the country, inflating load and sustaining strong burns. However, there are other factors at ... » read more
Tuesday Oct 18, 2016   
Back on April 29th of this year, there was a rupture on the Texas Eastern Pipeline just east of Pittsburgh near the Delmont compressor station. Flows through the compressor dropped from 1.3 BCF to zero when the incident occurred. This line, part of the Penn-Jersey Pipeline system, is crucial for delivering production from Western Pennsylvania to the population centers along the East coast. Spectra, owner of the Texas Eastern Pipeline immediately put into action an inspection and restoration plant to get this critical gas artery back into operation before the winter ... » read more
Monday Oct 17, 2016   
Since the first of the month, the weather in Calgary, AB has been well below normal for this time of year.  In fact, we have seen over half the days this month recording double digit below normal average temperatures. Figure 1 | Temperatures Across Canada - Actual and Forecast, Delta Deviations from Normal You can see in the graph above, there is quite a difference in what is going on in Western Canada (Calgary) compared to the Eastern side (Toronto).  This type of deviation from normal in Calgary and other parts of Alberta has impacted the demand in the ... » read more
Friday Oct 14, 2016   
I recently took a trip to Houston to discuss renewable opportunities with some wholesale folks at banks and power marketing companies. While I was there I spent some time with a former colleague who now works for a firm that, among other things, invests in distressed energy companies. This friend asked me the following question: “With the massive, unprecedented build out of the US renewable fleet, how has so much capital been destroyed in the renewable energy sector?” I didn’t have a ready answer to this simple question. I’ve been walking ... » read more
Thursday Oct 13, 2016   
It is that time of year in the Pacific Northwest, when the overnight lows start to drop into the upper 30's while daytime highs are in the low 60's.  Wind is volatile while the precipitation pattern starts to transition from almost nothing to days when the rain is coming down so hard that the rain gutters on the street (clogged with leaves) are flooding most intersections.  That time is this weekend as the precipitation forecast is calling for over 5 inches of rain over the next 5 days. Figure 1 | Northwest River Forecast Center Precipitation - Thursday ... » read more
Wednesday Oct 12, 2016   
Starting in early September we typically see the HDD count across the country begin to grow as the nation slides into fall. However, this year has been characterized by above normal temperatures weak HDD growth. Figure 1 displays the previous two year's gas weighted daily HDD count in the top portion of the graph (line segments) and the deviation from normal in the bar graph at the bottom of the graph.  As you can see, the last two years have seen a similar growth through September both falling behind normal from the start of September.  In ... » read more
Tuesday Oct 11, 2016   
At EnergyGPS, we have always tried to respond to the demands of our customers. This is why we have put together a new morning report focused on the South Central region of the country. ERCOT and SPP power markets have seen large changes in renewables additions, coal retirements and power burns over the past years making this a very dynamic market to monitor. The natural gas space is as complex as any in the world. Onshore production, offshore production, salt storage and pipeline infrastructure expansions make this area one of constant change. We cover these topics ... » read more
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