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| Monday Oct 30, 2023 | |
| The transition from October to November is going to deliver colder weather across the Midwest, Ohio Valley, and Northeast along with dropping a little dusting of lower temperatures into the Mid-Continent region. This was evident coming out of the weekend within SPP as the power demand profile took on a more pronounced double-hump profile where the morning ramp period shifted higher with increasing demand. Figure 1 | SPP Net Load Breakdown – Hourly The graph above details the SPP net load profile (turquoise shaded area), which is made up of the power demand (red line) and the wind generation (bright blue). The orange dotted line is tied to the SPP South day-ahead implied heat rate. The net load hourly numbers for today (30th) carry the highest value on the board ... » read more | |
| Friday Oct 27, 2023 | |
| The Washington State Cap-and-Invest program has provided plenty to analyze and opine on in its first year. We here at EnergyGPS started the year off with a carbon emission forecast covering the three major emitting sectors; namely, the Electricity, Transportation, and Residential/Commercial/Industrial (RCI) sectors. While our emission forecast changed slightly over the year, the allowance prices varied drastically. We recently summarized the auction prices in our Washington carbon report titled “Where Do We Go From Here”. In that report, we described how news from the policy makers has resulted in large shifts in prices going from $48.50 up to $72 in the secondary market and then back down to the low $50s. The large increase was due to an ... » read more | |
| Thursday Oct 26, 2023 | |
| A chill has descended upon Alberta. After an October with mostly above-normal temperatures, this week is expected to be as much as 20 degrees below normal. The matrix below shows heating degree day forecasts for the region with the day the forecast was created across the top and forecast dates going down. As we move from left to right, we can see the change in the forecast over the last several days as blue started percolating at the start of last week and now it is upon us. The next few days are expecting temperatures 20 degrees below normal with lows into the single digits. With the extra heating demand and a lackluster showing from renewables, Alberta pool price is now over $500/MWh. Figure 1 | Alberta Heating Degree Days Difference from Normal Matrix The two big factors to ... » read more | |
| Wednesday Oct 25, 2023 | |
| The most profitable way to operate a battery attempting to capture real-time arbitrage would be to charge during the lowest prices of the day and discharge during the highest. In our latest article, ‘Missed Charging Opportunities for CAISO Battery Fleet’, we explore how the fleet is actually operating. The figure below is featured in the article and plots the average generation of the CAISO battery fleet against average ranked SP15 prices. The ranking takes each 5-minute interval in the SP15 real-time market each day and assigns a number corresponding to how high or low the price is compared to the rest of the day. The lowest price is always ranked 1 while the highest is 288. The data shown includes 2023 through October 23rd and all of 2022. For the most part, it ... » read more | |
| Tuesday Oct 24, 2023 | |
| The Oregon fall regular season soccer season is coming to an end with the final matches being played this week. My daughter’s team had their finale last night where they won by scoring six goals and not allowing the other team to find the back of the net. Sitting in the stands is always a good gauge on how the weather is impacting both the game and the fans as the colder weather is starting to be felt over the 90-minute session. Figure 1 | Metal Bleaches – Temperature Gauge For the players on the field, it was not too bad last night as the temperatures were chilly but Mother Nature held off with the precipitation and wind gusts. The players sitting on the bench were bundled in their respective soccer parkas; which are longer than your typical outerwear. The ... » read more | |
| Monday Oct 23, 2023 | |
| The Western market lost the San Onofre Nuclear Generating (SONGS) units more than a decade ago as defects were found in the replacement rods. The sudden turn of events escalated the movement of the transmission grid as the goal was to try and replace the 2.2 GW of lost baseload capacity with renewable resources out of the central part of the CAISO footprint. Figure 1 | Nuclear Plants in the West This seemed logical given the renewable portfolio standard (RPS) that was being implemented within the Golden State, but not that realistic given that the intermittent power such as wind and the solar profile not making up for the light load period was the reality in play. This led to several gas plants within the LA Basin to be the marginal megawatt when the system got tight. ... » read more | |
| Friday Oct 20, 2023 | |
| NYS PSC Chooses Process Over Outcome: Petition to Amend REC Contracts Denied The New York State Public Service Commission (NYS PSC) on October 12, 2023, denied a petition by the Alliance for Clean Energy New York (ACENY), representing multiple project developers, to amend the contracts and prices for Renewable Energy Credits (RECs) and energy prices related to 86 onshore solar and wind and four offshore wind (OSW) projects to better account for inflationary challenges. The PSC has the obligation to balance the stated policy of NYS to decarbonize its economy and expand the growth of renewable energy development, while minimizing the impact on ratepayers and maintaining a fair and transparent contractual bidding process. In this decision, the PSC chose to minimize impacts ... » read more | |
| Thursday Oct 19, 2023 | |
| The EnergyGPS Renewable Monthly Report details the solar capture ratio for key regions that have seen growth over the years, to which we pointed out how the month of September 2023 stood out within the CAISO footprint. For example, the SP15 solar capture ratio plummeted from 86% in August down to 59% for the entire month of September. This is significantly lower than past years as well, with September 2022’s solar capture ratio at 87% and 90% in September of 2021. The changes to the CAISO grid that led to these changes are the subject of our latest Newsletter Special Report, “Capturing the Roller Coaster Ratio”. The figure below plots monthly CAISO solar capture ratio at NP15 and SP15 for the past three years. Not only was the September ... » read more | |
| Wednesday Oct 18, 2023 | |
| If you’ve been checking our NRC Nuclear Plant Summary Dashboard in the last few weeks, you may have been scratching your head at this fall’s outages. We’re now more than halfway through the month of October and nuclear outages should be in full swing. On October 17th last year, total nuclear outages were at the second highest peak for the fall outage season and reached close to 21 GW. In 2021 this same day had close to 20 GW of nuclear outages. This year on October 17th, total US nuclear outages were less than 16 GW. That’s 4 - 5 GW of missing outages. In this blog, we’ll dig deep into the case of the missing outages. Figure 1 | Total Nuclear Plant Outages in Megawatts Year-on-Year (2018 – 2023) Factor #1 – Recent Retirements A couple ... » read more | |
| Tuesday Oct 17, 2023 | |
| The volatility in the wind profile in SPP is present this week as Monday delivered auction clears that left the light load in the bottom portion of the natural gas supply stack while the heavy load send a price signal that displayed the marginal megawatts at the top of the same resource stack. This is not uncommon given the hourly profile is still dealing with an evening ramp peak while the wind output slid lower. Figure 1 | SPP Day-Ahead Auction Results Tuesday’s day-ahead results for SPP were substantially different as the light load took on the brunt of the wind increase thus driving the marginal megawatt out of the gas stack as the North dropped down into single digits while the South was barely holding on with a $10.88 settle. The heavy load saw it’s morning ... » read more | |