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| Wednesday Dec 6, 2023 | |
| Lake Mead’s elevation has risen above 2021 levels in the last few days. At 1,065 feet, the lake is more than 20 feet higher than last year at the start of December and almost 25 feet over its lowest point. Lake Mead sits behind Hoover Dam along the Colorado River. After a decades-long megadrought, this year’s influx of rain and snow from a series of atmospheric rivers has given the lake a much-needed boost. Figure 1 | Lake Mead Elevation in Feet Year-on-Year The end of 2022 and beginning of 2023 were busy with meetings, planning, and heated discussions over the fate of Hoover and Glen Canyon dams. Both lakes behind the dams were at their lowest points with Lake Powell behind Glen Canyon getting close to the minimum level for power generation and dead pool status. The ... » read more | |
| Tuesday Dec 5, 2023 | |
| The power market continues to see volatility within markets that have a high capacity of wind generation, which includes both SPP and ERCOT. Both markets started the week off with low generation output from the turbines only to now transition into a world where the net load numbers are low enough for the market balancing models to resort to negative settles which triggers curtailments or a stoppage of thermal generation to run around the clock, Figure 1 | ERCOT Net Load Breakdown – Hourly The graph above represents the ERCOT net load breakdown where the upcoming days are going to be taking on a different tone as the large blue shaded area represents that of wind output with the brighter shade tied to the past week while the honed blue region is that of the next seven days. ... » read more | |
| Monday Dec 4, 2023 | |
| Sipping coffee and watching the morning news over the weekend delivered the words ‘atmospheric river system’ both Saturday and Sunday as the Pacific Northwest coastal region was getting battered like no other. The weather pattern made its way to Portland and Seattle with Saturday morning highlighting the weekend event as several inches of rain fell in less than an hour. Flooding at every intersection was on display as the street was filled with leaves that covered all the city drain grates. As I walked my dog that Saturday morning, one intersection stood out as there were three electric cars that ventured through the puddle that looked shallow only to find out that the depth level was more than 18 inches deep and the vehicles stalled. Waiting for a tow ... » read more | |
| Friday Dec 1, 2023 | |
| The Western Power Pool (WPP) Western Resource Adequacy Program (WRAP) is marching along into the 2024 Summer non-binding Forward Showing (FS). The FS is where the WRAP estimates supply/demand balances for the regions covered by the WRAP which include much of the non-California west as shown below in Figure 1. Figure 1 | WRAP participants as of 2/24/2023. Source: https://www.westernpowerpool.org/private-media/documents/2023-02-24_WRAP_Webinar.pdf The timeline for the WRAP implementation is shown below in Figure 2. This schedule has the non-binding FS Summer 2024 data available at the end of October. These data have not been made publicly available at the time of this writing, but we expect that the results will not change significantly. The ... » read more | |
| Thursday Nov 30, 2023 | |
| The hydro outlook got a lifeline over the holiday weekend as after several weeks with increasingly dry forecasts, a weather system moved into the 10-day forecast that should deliver some much-needed precipitation to the region. The water is still a day away, but starting Friday and lasting through the middle of next week the Northwest should see eastern Washington and northern Idaho down through the Lower Snake in southern Idaho received precipitation at 150% of normal or more. The area west of the Cascades is expected to get slammed as usual, but even Canada will be in the mix with blue and green coloration extending into BC in the crucial areas that determine flows into BC Hydro’s large storage projects and then down into the Columbia main stem. Figure 1 | 10-Day ... » read more | |
| Wednesday Nov 29, 2023 | |
| Last November was marked by colder than normal weather in both California and the Pacific Northwest. The cold, along with a low hydro year and other factors, led to chaos in the natural gas market and concern over natural gas storage levels in California. This November shaped up quite differently. Temperatures have been mostly above normal in the Golden State, outside of a bit of chill this past week. The figure below shows California’s cumulative HDDs for November and December since 2017. The current year sits at a similar level to 2018 and 2021 while last year was by far the coldest in the seven year period. Figure 1 | Cumulative Monthly HDDs for November and December in California (2017-2023) In addition to the weather, there has been several changes to the supply stack with the ... » read more | |
| Tuesday Nov 28, 2023 | |
| The past couple of days have delivered the coldest temperatures of the 2024 winter season year-to-date where the Midwest is looking at single digit overnight lows with highs in the upper teens. If you move further south, the Plains are quite chilly along with the Texas Panhandle and the metro parts of Dallas/Fort Worth. The colder weather has pulled back on the wind generation in both SPP and ERCOT over the past couple of days but that is about to change as warmer temperatures and a shift in the jet stream will couple less power demand with more wind generation on average across the entire day. Figure 1 | SPP Net Load Profile - Hourly There will be moments where the wind volume dips down to create a more pronounced net load value but the periods are minimal and intraday ... » read more | |
| Monday Nov 27, 2023 | |
| The NYMEX session the prompt month is down twelve pennie, which puts the December 2023 contract at $2.74 as we enter the heart of bid week. The weather has turned since the holiday as the warm air mass that was centered over Alberta is migrating into the Midcon and Midwest later this week. Average temperatures in Chicago are going to climb from 28 to 40 degrees while the Ohio Valley and Northeast are going to follow suite. The further south you go, the trend is for the warmer weather to gather quicker and hold throughout the 6-10 and 11-15 day period. All this is going to impact the The Lower 48 rescom demand numbers as they fall from 40 BCF to 33 BCF by Friday. Figure 1 | Forecasted HDD Changes from Thursday to Sunday Nov 26 From a net load ... » read more | |
| Wednesday Nov 22, 2023 | |
| It’s been a warm November so far in Alberta. The figure below shows cumulative HDDs for October through December so far this year compared to the last 6 years. Including the forecast that extends through the end of the month, this November will come to around 950 cumulative HDDs for Alberta. That’s the warmest November on the board and well below last year’s total of 1327. However, this November hasn’t been without its challenges for the region. In this blog, we’ll look at the year-on-year changes using figures from our daily Alberta Power Pool Supply Demand Dashboard. Figure 1 | Cumulative HDDs in Alberta for October – December (2017 – 2023) With the warmer November temperatures, overall demand for Alberta is down compared to last year. The ... » read more | |
| Tuesday Nov 21, 2023 | |
| The drive along the only road that connects the airport to West Maui takes you past three diesel-fired generator stacks along with a row of wind turbines that make a line up the mountainside. The white cap water movement gives you an indication of what is brewing when it comes to the wind direction as magnitude while the car ride around the windy road is more hands on to what type of weather conditions are in play on a given day. Figure 1 | Renewable Islands? The wind seems to be in play by the car movement, palm trees swaying and the race to the beaches where the local surfing members gather to catch a wave or two throughout the day. What is ironic is that when you look up towards the wind turbines most of them are at a stand-still while the exhaust can be seen coming from ... » read more | |