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Monday Sep 26, 2016   
The Hunt for Red October is a 1990's movie based on the Cold War between the Soviet Union and the United States.  This year's 'hunt for red October' is based off a a warm weather front that is in the forecast for the month. This is usually a time for the colder fall-like weather to set in and heating demand starts to be a factor.  So far that does not look to be the case as the weather pattern has shifted into moderate temperatures across the country over the past 3-4 days and will continue on through the first week of October.  A good example of the ... » read more
Friday Sep 23, 2016   
Here at EnergyGPS we’ve spent a lot of time looking at the Texas market – especially wind projects in Texas. We’ve recently been working with some interesting ERCOT data from what is known as the “60-Day Report.” This data file, which is published by ERCOT on a 60-day lag, has tons of information on a generator level. Notably, it has information related to offer curves and dispatch levels. It is a wonderful resource. We’ve worked on a number of Texas Panhandle wind transactions. As many people know, the Panhandle portion of Texas ... » read more
Thursday Sep 22, 2016   
Starting this weekend, temperatures start to revert back to normal.  This is after a summer of much above normal temperatures across the Desert Southwest, Midwest, South Central , Southeast and Eastern parts of the country. The latter three regions have seen the summer trend continue on through the month of September as the likes of Boston and New York have seen highs in the low 90's post Labor Day while the Mid-Atlantic region was not too far behind with plenty of humidity.  Down South, the likes of Dallas and Houston have been rather hot as well with the ... » read more
Wednesday Sep 21, 2016   
Looking at the ISONE Morning report we notice quite a bit of color in the Total Transfer Capacity (TTC) table.  Currently, the Highgate interface (250 MWs) is offline while the New Brunswick tie is derated by 400 MWs and NY-AC tie is down 600 MWs.  The loss of imports increases reliance on domestic power generation, driving up the LMPs and adding strength to the AGT basis price as additional gas imports from Canada are needed to meet the increased generation.     Figure 1 | ISONE TTC Table - 9/19/2016 Looking forward, Import capacity over Phase ... » read more
Tuesday Sep 20, 2016   
Over the years we have become accustomed to seeing rain events have a negative effect on load. After all, cool wet weather typically reduces the demand for air conditioning. This week we are seeing a very interesting weather pattern develop over Southern California. While the Los Angeles Basin has daytime highs warm to the mid 90's, monsoon winds from the south are bringing cloud cover and rain to the Inland Empire and Colorado River region. The green area in Figure 1 just happens to reside right over the new large scale solar installations in the California ... » read more
Monday Sep 19, 2016   
Over the weekend a couple of things occurred that has made the Gulf of Mexico region 1.3 to 1.5 BCF longer compared to last Tuesday.  The first is tied to the September outage that has been scheduled at Sabine.  The 1.2-1.3 BCF of flows were suppose to shift down earlier in the month but due to some delays and a set of storms moving through the region, the gas noms remained high.  It was not until this past Tuesday that things started to change as gas noms at the facility went from taking 1.0 BCF down to .02 BCF on Sunday. Figure 1 | Sabine Gas Noms - ... » read more
Friday Sep 16, 2016   
One of the biggest developments over the last two years in renewable procurement has been the rise of the corporate PPA. Corporate and Industrial (C&I) eclipsed utilities as buyers of wind PPA’s in 2015. According to the Rocky Mountain Institute’s Business Renewable Center, there were 1.18 GW of renewable corporate PPAs in 2014 and 3.24 GW in 2015. Figure 1 is a graphic put together by Renewable Choice showing the number of C&I PPAs over time. Figure 1 | Aggregate PPA Deals in the C&I ... » read more
Thursday Sep 15, 2016   
As of September 7th, HE 20 MST Palo Verde Unit 1 tripped offline due to a stuck open pressurized main spray value.  The next morning, NRC posted that the unit itself was 100% offline and would continue to stay offline until the situation was resolved. Figure 1 | NRC Notes on Palo Verde Unit 1 As a result of the unit being offline, the Desert Southwest flows into California started to shift down on the 8th but really dropped for the CAISO day-ahead market on the 9th. Figure 2 | Palo Verde Day-Ahead Flows - Hourly Heavy Load Hours Figure 2 illustrates this as the ... » read more
Wednesday Sep 14, 2016   
Looking at the most recent weather models we are seeing a brief cold spell spread across the Midwest in the short-term, followed by a wave of above normal temperatures which sweep across the entire US through the end of the month.  Above normal temperatures are nothing new this summer as prolonged heat across the country has kept gas demand (power burns) strong, which has helped eat away as the big surplus of gas in storage coming out of a warm winter.  However, as we enter the back half of September it is important we adjust our expectations as ... » read more
Tuesday Sep 13, 2016   
Most of the market was surprised to see the front NYMEX natural gas contract up 10 cents as they walked in the door yesterday morning. After all, North American load had dropped to fall like levels after a very hot summer and there was no heat in the forecast. Saturdays load was expected to be right at the same levels witnessed over the Labor Day weekend. If that materialized, then we could expect natural gas power burns to drop down to 30 BCF or lower for Saturday and Sunday. That did not happen. Most market participants were surprised to see that the power burns ... » read more
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