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| Friday Apr 14, 2023 | |
| I subscribe to four newspapers, including: The New York Times. Read it for national news. But mostly subscribe for Wordle and Spelling Bee. Media rating of “Skews Left” and “More Reliable.” The Wall Street Journal. Read it for straight down the middle news. Media rating of “Balanced Bias / Skews Right” and “More Reliable. The Oregonian. Read it for the local Portland news – local/state politics, crime, sports, and food. Media rating of “Balanced Bias” and “More Reliable.” The Southeast Examiner. Hyper local news. Free Monthly publication with the tagline “Your Neighborhood News Source Created and Powered by the Love of Community.” The publications are listed in reverse order of preference – I ... » read more | |
| Thursday Apr 13, 2023 | |
| The attention has been on snowpack throughout the Pacific Northwest over the past week, as recent days have given the region plentiful precipitation as well as the first blast of warmer temperatures of the spring to kick start snow melt, at least for a brief period before things cool down again (as they have already started doing). Earlier at the beginning of the week on Monday the first signs of snow melt showed up for the Snake River basin as the snow water equivalent (SWE) for the Upper Snake River Above American Falls watershed area began to show a decline from before the start of last weekend. In the few days since then, snow melt has begun to be observable over a broader area, with the Snake basin SWE declining further and SWE for the Columbia basin starting to drop as ... » read more | |
| Wednesday Apr 12, 2023 | |
| In Shakespeare’s Julius Caesar, ‘Beware the ides of March!’ refers to the warning Caesar ignored from a soothsayer that could see into the future. Unbeknownst to Caesar, his fellow leaders were planning his demise for the middle, or the ides, of the month. In his hubris, he ignored the warnings and felt the consequences later. In the natural gas and power markets, there are no soothsayers that can provide insight months into the future. Instead, market participants attempt to read the tea leaves that come in the form of weather forecasts and regressions from historic records. The month of March brings along with it certain assumptions; spring is on the way with warmer temperatures and a switch from natural gas withdrawals to injections. The West could have used a warning ... » read more | |
| Tuesday Apr 11, 2023 | |
| The winter weather across the West region has been in the news since the start of November and escalated in December as the California natural gas market saw its cash prices move up from the mid-teens to that of $60 on a tight cash trading session. A lot has changed since that time as Mother Nature has delivered plenty of precipitation in the Golden State that has showed up as snowpack and now rainfall. The ground saturation issues that were present given the drought-like conditions seem to be long gone for the time being and the lakes that were hit on hard times will have recreation activity come the long Memorial Day holiday weekend. Figure 1 | CAISO Hydro Generation – Year on Year Comparison The graph above is an illustration of the flat hydro generation ... » read more | |
| Monday Apr 10, 2023 | |
| The Easter Bunny has come and gone and depending on which part of the country you live determined if the eggs were hidden in the backyard or someplace within the house. Looking ahead to the middle of April and beyond, the current weather forecast has some warmer weather in the near-term while the 6-10-day period is carrying closer to normal conditions. This is true for the Midwest and Ohio Valley as temperatures rise all week and give way to colder conditions come the weekend. The 11-15 day block is trending warmer across the entire country; therefore spring-like conditions are warranted and will be enjoyed by many, especially those in the West as temperatures have been nothing but cold up to this point of 2023. This type of weather will lead to the renewable landscape ... » read more | |
| Friday Apr 7, 2023 | |
| Ending the first week of April, the spring season is underway and the weather in California is finally reflecting it (well, mostly; Northern CA is still getting some rain). With days on end of sunshine and comfortable temperatures not calling for much heating or cooling, solar curtailments are picking up significantly, as we discuss in our latest Special Report, The Belly is Big,. While most curtailment tends to happen at a local level—that is, local congestion and constraints drive nodal prices low enough to incentivize individual generators to turn off—this is also the time of year where system-wide overgeneration is most likely to occur. Figure 1 | CAISO Solar and Wind Curtailments, 3/30 – 4/5 The figure above shows solar and wind gen and curtailments, on an hourly ... » read more | |
| Thursday Apr 6, 2023 | |
| This week marks the arrival of one of the major events of the water year when it comes to impacting hydro generation in the Pacific Northwest. While mother nature seems to be dragging her feet in the transition from winter into spring with chilly mornings and hailstorms pummeling Portland that leave the ground looking like snowfall, there is one change related to springtime that cannot be delayed—the implementation of spring spill. From the start of the new year up through the present the fish protection operations have been focused on Chum incubation, to keep water levels on the Lower Columbia high enough to provide a healthy environment for the fish to develop and hatch. As that time arrives, each spring the operation changes to instead help newly hatched ... » read more | |
| Wednesday Apr 5, 2023 | |
| After a long and frigid winter, Alberta is moving through their last wintery push this week. The 15-day forecast for the last few months has been covered by a dark blue cloud of below normal temperatures. The most recent streak of cold ends today with average temperatures below freezing at 30 degrees Fahrenheit. While the demand isn’t up to the record level of earlier this winter, peak demand was up to 10.5 GW last Friday and over 10 GW yesterday. The real trouble comes when wind doesn’t show up to contribute its fair share of supply. The figure below shows load, wind generation, and net load, calculated by subtracting wind from overall load. The bottom panel shows power pool price. While the grid handled the highest demand on Friday without breaking above $60/MWh, the last ... » read more | |
| Tuesday Apr 4, 2023 | |
| The West power and natural gas markets have captured the headlines this past winter as the former has taken on the fact that the Pacific Northwest hydro season started out dry while California gained momentum around the middle of January 2023 and has not looked back when it comes to their hydro situation. The latter has been one for the record books as strong demand from the rescom sector and power burn component had the end of the pipe entities reeling as they had to rely on storage gas at a pace that basically left them tight earlier and often. ERCOT continues to display issues similar to the California Independent System Operator (CAISO) as its wind is strong all the while the solar profile continues to increase; thus creating a new net load profile that exposes HE18/19 ... » read more | |
| Monday Apr 3, 2023 | |
| First noted in a market flash earlier this week, “Heat on the Horizon”, and discussed further in the article “ERCOT Dress Rehearsal for Summer”, temperatures early next week will be well above average for several days throughout Texas, with temperatures then returning to normal by Wednesday April 6. Figure 1| Tubing on the Guadalupe River Many questions swirl: How many MW of thermal are down for maintenance? Will the most recent year installations of solar show up in force? Will wind be a factor? And how much west Texas wind can make it into the Houston market? And most importantly, as shown in Figure 1, will it be warm enough for a tubing trip down the Guadalupe River? With the exception of the float trip ... » read more | |