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| Thursday Apr 27, 2023 | |
| The wild card of ERCOT power supply is wind. And occasionally a massive storm event, but on a day-to-day basis, its wind. So let’s briefly consider the topic of the interaction between wind, solar, net load, heat rates and prices in the context of this coming weekend in ERCOT as discussed in more detail in the article “Ringing the Dinner Bell in ERCOT”. Typically, wind is at its most robust in the evening hours in Texas but this weekend shapes up a little different. For April 29th and 30th, we have an anomalous pattern arising. Our wind output on the evening of April 29th is forecast to fall by over 20 GW over the course of just a few hours heading into the evening. This will occur in overnight hours when the ... » read more | |
| Thursday Apr 27, 2023 | |
| In our daily blog posts we like to give a different taste each day of the many different topics and questions we think about relating to energy and natural gas markets, and renewables. The taste of the day—or soup du jour—for this morning is an excerpt from our recent Newsletter Special Report, “MISO Supply Soup Ingredient – Solar”. Miso soup is a traditional Japanese soup consisting of a dashi stock into which softened miso paste is mixed. There are many optional ingredients, such as tofu and vegetables, that may be added depending on the regional/seasonal recipes and/or personal preference. The type of miso paste chosen for the soup defines its character and flavor as the fermenting process determines if a soup is lighter/sweeter (white ... » read more | |
| Wednesday Apr 26, 2023 | |
| In November 2021 Aliso Canyon’s natural gas storage grew by 7 billion cubic feet (BCF) and by December reached almost 41 BCF in total. Now SoCal Gas and San Diego Gas and Electric want to be able to add another 27 BCF in preparation for next winter. The cavern’s total capacity is even higher at 86 BCF, but the cavern has been limited to a fraction of its total storage after a leak in 2015. The California Public Utilities Commission allowed for the increase to 41.16 BCF in 2021 for reliability reasons. It was intended to be a one-time increase to offset the limited transport on the L200 pipeline due to maintenance. However, after a winter of high gas prices, SoCal Gas and San Diego Gas and Electric are arguing that increasing storage at Aliso Canyon to 68.6 BCF is both safe and ... » read more | |
| Tuesday Apr 25, 2023 | |
| SPP continues to be a marker focused on finding a way to incorporate its growing renewable presence, specifically wind generation. We continue to see the potential capacity grow over the years as the latest level is north of 27.4 GW. This is up over 5.0 GW compared to two years ago and looks to continue to grow with more capacity in the queue. The good news is that the grid seems to be finding a home for any incremental renewable output as the 2023 year-to-date curtailments are tracking that of 2022. Figure 1 | SPP Cumulative Curtailment Comparison We published a market flash, titled ‘Natural Gas Ratio is Staggering’, which detailed how the system is balancing and what resources are needed to keep the lights on. With the increase in wind capacity ... » read more | |
| Monday Apr 24, 2023 | |
| As of April 2023, EnergyGPS has opened a new food cart that serves the Friday ‘Burrito’. If you are new to the energy sector, specifically the West, the 'Burrito' is a publication where the content covers pertinent information tied to all the happenings in the energy sector ranging from market topics to that of the regulatory front. Figure 1 | The Friday Burrito Like burrito food cart, a la carte menu item brings with it a little spice and tangy salsa at times given the circumstances around integrating an independent system operator (ISO) with old traditional balancing authorities that make up the rest of the West power region. The power grid continues to get trickier given the natural gas landscape continues to create volatility as both Citygates have an aging ... » read more | |
| Friday Apr 21, 2023 | |
| Now that a few months of 2023 are behind us, we can look back and see what trends have been showing up in renewable generation. This is something we explore in detail every month in our Renewable Monthly Report and in this blog focus on a graph we update every day on our ERCOT RT Dashboard. Figure 1 | ERCOT Wind and Solar 12x24 Profiles, 2021 – 2023 YTD This graph shows average monthly and hourly renewable generation in ERCOT. Wind is in the top pane, then solar, and then the combination of the two is in the bottom pane. Different years are different colors, with 2023 shown in red. One thing that immediately sticks out is how different the wind profile was during the first two months of this year compared to the same months the past couple of years. While there have ... » read more | |
| Thursday Apr 20, 2023 | |
| Ancillary service (AS) prices in ERCOT have been consistently low so far this year. Last April, NonSpin prices averaged over $19. This March prices fell to less than half of that at $7.84 and April so far this year is down another $0.73. RegUp, RegDown, and Spin prices have seen similar dips. All saw average prices in the teens last year drop to single digits this year. There have been some bumps, especially for RegDown which rose to $52.15 early in February this year. For April so far, ERCOT RegDown prices are averaging under $5. In our recent newsletter article, “Low Ancillary Service Prices in ERCOT”, excerpted in this blog, we investigate the ancillary service market in ERCOT and the drivers behind the lower prices in 2023. Figure 1 | ERCOT Ancillary Service Prices ... » read more | |
| Wednesday Apr 19, 2023 | |
| The Desert Southwest saw some heat in the last week. After spending most of March and the beginning of April with below normal temperatures, a wave of heat washed over the region starting Monday, April 10th. The figure below shows cooling degree days differences from normal for this time of year. Looking at the forecast from April 12th in the column on the furthest right, average temperatures for that day went up to more than 10 degrees over normal. Denver saw a high of 85 degrees F, while Tucson and Phoenix were in the 90s. The heat is sticking around this week but is fading from the highs of last week. Figure 1 | Degree Day Matrix with DSW CDDs Difference from Normal The grid felt the pressure of increased demand as people reached for the thermostat and turned on their ACs. Average ... » read more | |
| Tuesday Apr 18, 2023 | |
| After a relatively slow but steady decline in Pacific Northwest hydro generation over the first two weeks of April of approximately 500 MW, this weekend saw a steeper drop down of 1 GW in two days, from 8.5 GW this past Friday the 14th to 7.5 GW on Sunday. The region saw the fruits from warmer temperatures and plenty of precipitation leading up to and through the first portion of last week in the form of increased river flows on both the Snake and Columbia rivers, that latter portion of the week saw flows pull back. After peaking at 75 kcfs on Wednesday, April 12th, Lower Granite inflows declined through the weekend as temperatures cooled and snow melt came to a halt, ending the week at 56 kcfs on Sunday. Over on the Columbia main stem, Grand Coulee outflows dropped down ... » read more | |
| Monday Apr 17, 2023 | |
| If you ever get a chance to drive from the Pacific Northwest to the Midwest along Interstate 90 and 94, I highly recommend it especially if you are an energy geek like me. Starting off in Portland and heading east on I-84, you move out of the Columbia River Gorge by passing that of Bonneville and The Dalles dam. It was dawn at the time of my travels, but you could still see the midst of the spillways running under the moonlight of in the distance. The next visual was that of John Day dam and the blinking red lights that light up the high desert hillside. These lights are associated with the wind farms that have been built and managed over the years. As you pass by the dams, the city ports are full of data centers that are running non-stop 24 hours a day. ... » read more | |