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| Monday May 22, 2023 | |
| Memorial Day is a time of year where transition starts to occur with the first being that the school year is almost complete, and the young adults look forward to their summer activities outside the classroom. We also see this time as putting the first two months of Q2 behind us and looking ahead to the final month of the spring (June) while keeping one eye on what the weather vendors think Mother Nature has in store for Q3. Figure 1 | Memorial Day Transition The biggest transition during the Memorial Day weekend sits in the Pacific Northwest as it is a time that sees the water year usually hit its peak flows by the end of the month and all that is left is to analyze what snowpack is up in the mountains and what it means for meeting the dam storage refill targets by the start of ... » read more | |
| Friday May 19, 2023 | |
| ERCOT and SPP are considered the front runners when it comes to their respective wind capacity installation over the past decade or so. If you look at the current forecast for wind generation, you will do a double take most likely as the numbers are displaying single digit averages across both regions. Figure 1 | ERCOT Net Load Profile The graph above is part of the EnergyGPS ERCOT Morning Report/Dashboard where we illustrate the net load that is derived by taking the hourly power demand (red line) and subtracting out the renewable components such as solar (gold shade) and wind (darker blue shade). The lighter turquoise shaded region displays the net load with the first half tied to the actuals and the second half indicated what is to come over the next week. It is clear that the ... » read more | |
| Thursday May 18, 2023 | |
| The growth of renewables, such as wind and solar, is meant to solve the problems created by burning fossil fuels. However, implementing these technologies comes with its own set of challenges to power grids across the country. ERCOT and PJM are two ISOs that have seen growth in both solar and wind over the last few years. While the power is cleaner than a coal or natural gas plant, it’s intermittent and only available when the sun is shining, or the wind is blowing. This creates a consistency problem where some hours have plentiful amounts of renewable energy while others must still rely on thermal plants. ERCOT saw average solar generation in the middle of the day up to 10 GW so far this May, while average wind is up to 15 GW in its peak hour. With more renewable capacity comes ... » read more | |
| Wednesday May 17, 2023 | |
| The West is enjoying high temperatures this week with highs up to 100 degrees F in Phoenix on Monday, May 15th. It’s just the beginning of a heat wave expected to last over the next two weeks. The figure below shows differences from normal cooling degree days this time of year based on a composite Desert Southwest temperature. This week has temperatures 4 to 7 degrees warmer than normal, and it coincides with heat waves in both the Pacific Northwest and California. The last time this happened this spring, all three regions depended on CAISO thermal to meet the increased demand. This round of heat should play out a little differently as the heat has cranked up enough in the last few weeks to melt the snow in the mountains and send it down through the dams across the West. We explore ... » read more | |
| Monday May 15, 2023 | |
| Warm weather abounds across the entire, which equates to strong power demand and the acceleration of the higher elevation snowpack in both the Pacific Northwest and California. The former has limited quantity per se in the Upper Columbia basin (see recent EnergyGPS Pacific Northwest Hydro Report/Discussion) while the latter is plentiful as multiple storms moved though the Golden State since the beginning of January 2023. The amount of snow that remains in the mountains is record setting and is creating issues tied to where to put the remaining snow water equivalent (SWE) quantity as storage facilities are reaching their max and flooding is already in play along the riverbanks. Figure 1 | CAISO Hydro Profile – Hourly The graph above displays the hourly CAISO hydro ... » read more | |
| Friday May 12, 2023 | |
| Our blog yesterday focused on an element of our latest Newsletter Renewable Monthly report: specifically, it examined the expansion of solar capacity in ERCOT going back to 2013, and compared the average monthly solar profile so far this year to the profiles during the past two years. The increase is certainly something to watch, as ERCOT now has higher solar penetration than any other US ISO besides CAISO. Today we’ll focus on a different element of the same report, but staying within the zone of ERCOT solar. Our Renewable Monthly reports focus on the most recent past three months, and compare that time period to the same time period for the past two years. The figure below shows a snippet of the information available in the ERCOT table in the report: Figure 1 | ERCOT RTC Prices ... » read more | |
| Thursday May 11, 2023 | |
| As renewable penetration increases in a given market—especially when solar power rises in prominence in the supply stack—a lot of attention is given to the evening ramp period, as the rapid drop-off in generation in the evening leaves the grid facing a longer and longer “neck” of net load with MW that need to be replaced. In some regions and seasons that can be mitigated by other renewable resources such as wind, depending on the shape of the hourly profile. Looking back at the first full month of spring, we saw this interplay in markets across the country, with ERCOT at the forefront. This was one of the topics of focus in hour latest Newsletter Renewable Monthly article, “April 2023- The Evening Net Load Neck”. ERCOT is seeing rapid ... » read more | |
| Wednesday May 10, 2023 | |
| April is a month of spring flowers, rain showers, and Easter bunnies in bowties. For those who celebrate the holiday, the festivities often include baskets full of multicolored plastic eggs that open with a satisfying pop to a candy surprise. Traditionally, each participant is given a single woven basket and told to find as many eggs as possible before the hunt is up. This flies in the face of the well-known saying, ‘Don’t put all your eggs in one basket’, which warns of investing everything in just one source. As the month of Easter ends, it’s an important adage for energy grids to remember as well. Supply stacks need to be diverse to ensure power is there when it’s needed. Most grids have a mix of supply sources, including intermittently available ... » read more | |
| Tuesday May 9, 2023 | |
| The days of wondering what the West is going to do with no water in the river systems, storage facilities or snowpack in the mountains seem to be in the distant past as the Pacific Northwest is getting its spring flush while California accumulated more snowpack to add the record setting 2023 period that started in early January. Table 1 | EnergyGPS 10-Day Generation and Stream Flow Actuals/Forecast The table above is a daily dashboard that we deliver to clients and is part of the EnergyGPS Pacific Northwest/California Hydro Package we offer to market participants that want to be on top of the regional market fundamentals tied to snowpack, stream flows and actual generation forecast that go out through a full Water Year. The top portion of the table breaks down the daily generation by ... » read more | |
| Monday May 8, 2023 | |
| ERCOT is looking at higher power demand today (May 8th) as temperatures are on the rise across the Lone Star State. This has led to the net load numbers rising as the wind profile continues to bring with it a shift down during the later afternoon hours and only starts to rise around the time the solar hours are coming to an end. Figure 1 | ERCOT Net Load Looking at the chart above, the gold dotted line represents the day-ahead hourly implied heat rate levels for the North Zone. The big spike up is meaningful as the turquois shaded area (net load) displays the highest level in the two-week window and has a bulge that sits within a Monday, which means coming out of the weekend. Taking a deeper look into the hourly price levels for the North Zone, the week-on-week levels jump out with ... » read more | |