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| Wednesday Jul 27, 2022 | |
| Both Lake Powell behind Glen Canyon Dam and Lake Mead behind Hoover Dam are facing historically low elevations that are threatening hydropower generation in the Desert Southwest. We’ve been following updates on the lakes and the measures taken to save them here at EnergyGPS, most recently in the report titled ‘Lowering the Lows at Lake Mead’. Read on for a sneak peak of the updates and insights in this article. Recent satellite photos released by NASA show the drastic change at Lake Mead from 2000, the last time the lake was full, to 2021, and on to 2022. The changes are staggering and the impacts for the millions of people depending on the water for agriculture and power are even more so. At the beginning of this year, a Tier 1 Shortage was announced, meaning usage cuts ... » read more | |
| Tuesday Jul 26, 2022 | |
| Transco Pipeline was originally commissioned in 1950 and was designed to move supply from Texas and the Gulf of Mexico up into the demand centers in the Northeast. Over the years the pipeline has changed from a long haul natural gas pipeline delivering Gulf supply into New York City to a bidirectional route moving Marcellus gas south to demand centers in the Southeast. Currently up to 2 BCF per day is shipped southbound out of the Mid Atlantic into the Carolinas and Georgia. But as demand has bloomed along the path the supply has been outstripped by demand growth. Despite having natural gas production sources out of the Gulf and Northeast the Transco Pipeline is suffering an island effect throughout the Southeast where there is not enough molecules to meet the power generation ... » read more | |
| Monday Jul 25, 2022 | |
| Over the past year and a half, California batteries have been an active part of the conversation within the EnergyGPS construct of new market attributes within the energy sector. We allow market participants to engage in such conversation via the EnergyGPS eCommerce platform, where individuals can subscribe to a specific package to which they receive content tied to the energy space. The latest piece of content, titled ‘Throwing DARTS at CAISO’, detailed how the battery fleet has been adapting to the market conditions around supply/demand and constraints within the technology itself. In the article, we discuss the revenue streams that are tied to the newly minted technology of the future and what it means to the energy markets participants play in each day. ... » read more | |
| Friday Jul 22, 2022 | |
| The US Natural Gas market has taken its share of prisoners since the second half of last year, and it’s showing little sign off easing off the volatility we’ve seen since then given the growth of many pressures on the supply demand balance (including geopolitical factors, changes in the production profile, and weather events) in that time span. While this volatility classically makes for a more exciting trading environment with fresh opportunities for many, it also has a singular drag on a major piece of the puzzle for most shops; maintaining liquidity. This is in part because credit facilities and exposures are often estimated, sized, and priced in proportion to the Potential Future Exposure (PFE) calculation for a given company, line of business, or trade. And that ... » read more | |
| Thursday Jul 21, 2022 | |
| The Pacific Northwest so far this summer has enjoyed relatively mild conditions on the power grid. Temperatures have been cool with only a handful of days with above average heat which has kept demand moderate. Things have been a far cry from the summer of 2021 when a late June heat dome effect had the entire region setting all-time high temperature records and pushed Mid-C into the forefront of the West as the highest priced hub. The Northwest is seeing a little bit of warmth currently, but the weather forecast for next week has the specter of another heat wave looming ahead. The figure below shows WSI Trader’s 15-day temperature forecast for the Northwest, showing daily min/max estimates. The large block of red colored cells starting next Monday ... » read more | |
| Wednesday Jul 20, 2022 | |
| Over the last few months, we have been covering the attempts to prolong power generation at Glen Canyon Dam. Battling climate change and the increasing strain of water use combined with power generation, the forecast for the lake and the power generated by its dam has been bleak. Back in March of this year, levels at the lake behind Glen Canyon dam reached a historic low and simultaneously passed an important marker that allowed for the Bureau of Reclamation to intervene. Figure 1 | Elevation in Feet at Lake Powell (2010 – 2022) The figure above shows elevation in feet at Lake Powell since 2010. Some yearly cycles of draining and refilling are present, but overall, the trend has been downward with an especially prolonged drop down starting in 2019. The orange section of the line ... » read more | |
| Tuesday Jul 19, 2022 | |
| There was a time in the not too distant past that Southern California power prices were the highest on the continent. Shut down of the San Onofre nuclear generating station as well as the Mohave coal fired power plant pushed the power prices well above every other index across the land. But since those moments a monumental build out of solar and wind generation in the California desert has helped to relieve the price premium. This year the SP15 zone, which represents the southern half of the states grid encompassing both Southern California Edison and San Diego Gas and Electric, has stayed as a significant discount to the NP15 zone in the north. That is until this week. Figure 1 | CAISO On Peak SP15/NP15 Cash Prices for 2022 The change in pricing is due to the ongoing ... » read more | |
| Monday Jul 18, 2022 | |
| A couple of weeks ago one of the Newsletter alluded to the Portland City United (PCU) 04 Boys soccer team (my son plays on this team – most of them seniors) winning the US Soccer West Regional tournament which stamped their ticket to Nationals. That time has arrived given that the 16 players, two coaches and me (team manager) boarded a plane on Sunday morning and were destined for Orlando, Florida where they will be participating in what is called Group Play Tuesday through Thursday. There are four brackets where the top team in each advanced to the semi-finals on Saturday for the chance to play in the finals on Sunday. Their match on Wednesday evening (6:00 PM EDT) will be live streamed on ESPN 3, which is exciting for all relatives and friends who cannot make it ... » read more | |
| Friday Jul 15, 2022 | |
| The past week has been a volatile one within the Lone Star State as Mother Nature continues to blanket the region with the 'heat dome' pattern that was seen last spring/summer in the Pacific Northwest. Starting last Sunday, ERCOT issued a news release calling for conservation during the afternoon/evening periods as the week was about to get started. The announcement was brief but to the point as it cited extreme heat and record-breaking demand as the reasons for conservation but behind the scenes the ERCOT system operators also had one eye on the supply situation as any disruption to the resource stack would cause concern that has not been in play since Storm Uri (February 2021 Cold Snap). Figure 1 | ERCOT Conservation Appeal from 7/10/22 Yesterday, we published a special ... » read more | |
| Thursday Jul 14, 2022 | |
| ERCOT was faced yesterday with a large escalation to the pattern of scarcity and spiking electricity prices, as the real-time SPPs ran up to the $5,000 price cap mid-afternoon and remained there for several hours. Leading up to yesterday, the system operators saw Monday’s day-ahead auction clear rip to levels not seen since the tail end of Storm Uri as prices cleared north of $650 across the heavy load block. With conservation alerts sent via the ERCOT message board, on television and via every mobile phone application, the word was out that every megawatt would matter when it comes to balancing the system. The figure below shows ERCOT’s real-time price map, captured at 4:50 pm. The deep red color covering almost the entirety of ERCOT’s territory is an ... » read more | |