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| Monday May 2, 2022 | |
| The weekends in California are full of relaxation on the beach or some sort of outdoor activity this time of the year. The excitement to the activities is tied to the sun being out to which lends itself to plenty of solar output hitting the CAISO grid from both a behind-the-meter and utility-scaled facility perspective. Over the years we have discussed the impact of the increased solar capacity driving the need for flex ramping capabilities and new technologies such as utility-scaled batteries strategically placed so that the existing transmission grid can be used. Figure 1 | CAISO Solar Generation During the Middle of the Day The graph above is an hourly heat rate and generation comparison (x-axis) between April 30th and May 1st where the former is represented by ... » read more | |
| Friday Apr 29, 2022 | |
| The evolution of the ERCOT market post Storm-URI continues to be on the forefront of everyone's mind now that April will soon be in the books and May/June are right around the corner to which the true summer months are going to be upon us rather quickly. This is the period of time that the Lone Star State moves away from it's little dip in the power demand profile and renewable curtailments and starts to focus on where the marginal megawatt sits as the crossover point moves upward and to the right. This is where ERCOT's Operating Reserve Demand Curve (ORDC) revamped calculations come into play. Earlier in the week, we published a special report (part of the Platinum Package), titled 'ERCOT's ORDC Calculation', that explains the magnitude of impact that the new ORDC rules might ... » read more | |
| Thursday Apr 28, 2022 | |
| The renewable portfolio throughout Texas continues to grow as both solar and battery technology has joined the ranks of wind within the past couple of years. The topic is pertinent as the problem starts to become what does the grid do with an influx of solar generation during the midday all while the wind output is hefty and power demand is closer to the daily low point during the shoulder season. Our recent Newsletter Special Report, titled “ERCOT’s Hybrid Renewable Curtailment Model” walks through the details of how ERCOT’s renewable landscape is evolving as well as how we see thing progressing as we move into the summer. The most recent curtailment data from ERCOT (March 2022) is indicating the problem at hand with a rise in the rate of curtailments ... » read more | |
| Wednesday Apr 27, 2022 | |
| At Energy GPS we spend a good amount of time providing insight and detail around renewables curtailments in markets like ERCOT and CAISO. In short, these markets have experienced such tremendous growth of wind and solar resources that there are now periods within days where these renewables can overwhelm the grid when there is not enough demand to consume the electrons, forcing the ISOs to increasingly curtail delivery of wind and solar power to the grid. An aspect of all of this we have been discussing in reports is the impact that ERCOT curtailments can have on prices. Specifically: the role that the renewables growth and curtailments scenarios have had in creating and exacerbating intra-ERCOT zonal price hub dislocations. In ERCOT, the name of the game is ... » read more | |
| Tuesday Apr 26, 2022 | |
| The spring is typically outage season. It is a time of low gas and power demand which enables equipment operators the opportunity to take assets out of service to perform routine maintenance. This year has been one of the most robust nuclear refuel seasons on record peaking out at 24 GWa during the first week of April. But now as the hemisphere makes its turn to cooling degree accumulations the outage season is set to end. In the next three weeks 20 GWa of nuclear capacity is scheduled to return back to the grid. Approximately 8 GWa of that total will be in the Midwest and Mid Atlantic. Another 7 GWa will return in the Gulf and Southeast. The return of nuclear generation to the grid will be welcome for the natural gas balancing which will struggle to close the year on year inventory ... » read more | |
| Monday Apr 25, 2022 | |
| Sending a price signal in the marketplace is essential for balancing the energy grid in the real-time marketplace. The days of shifting in/out of the coal and natural gas stack to solve such a problem seem to be long gone with the introduction of renewable energy over the past 15 years. CAISO has been the front-runner in the arena of negative settles during certain blocks of hours due to its renewable energy policy that mandates a certain percentage of supply be met with wind, solar and now batteries. Figure 1 | CAISO Curtailment Breakdown - Hourly Most of the negative prices can be seen during the middle of the day as the solar penetration creates a real issue for the grid operators as they cannot find a home for all the energy that is being produced. The action that ... » read more | |
| Friday Apr 22, 2022 | |
| The Pacific Northwest has been witnessing ‘polar-opposite’ conditions this April (2022) compared to the previous year when drought-like conditions were present all the while the heat dome conditions were forming. For those of us who reside in the region, the long-lived snowstorm and chilly conditions crossed over with the budding flowers (tulips) in everyone’s yard. When the white stuff finally melted, Mother Nature was not finished as she has been delivering below normal temperatures that have had an impact on the overall hourly power demand profile. This type of demand coincides with the new hydro fish spill requirements that continue to tighten the system to a point that the regional market participants have to claw back the megawatts that once were being ... » read more | |
| Thursday Apr 21, 2022 | |
| The 2022 water year in California started off looking promising with several storms in November and December delivering healthy precipitation to Northern California, with a late December dumping of snow brought the state’s snow water equivalent (SWE) to well above normal levels, as shown by the blue line in the figure below. The most important period for California hydro is the period from January to February, as most of the total snowpack is accumulated during those months. The first three months of the 2022 calendar year were a disappointment as they developed, with the lowest precipitation levels ever recorded for the state. The amount of snow remained virtually unchanged from the 1st of the year until two thirds of the way through March as the precipitation was ... » read more | |
| Wednesday Apr 20, 2022 | |
| The hits keep coming. The latest shockwave to global energy markets emanating from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is hitting the coal market as the European Commission stepped up to ban imports of the Russian-sourced fuel. Such a decision supports the European coal futures, which translates to an inherent rise in U.S. coal pricing. As we move forward, the global construct will continue to have an impact on the overall coal-to-gas switching inelasticity that started to appear last summer when it became apparent that coal fundamentals were changing. Earlier this month, the European Commission agreed to impose a block-wide ban on imports of Russian-sourced coal. The EU imports roughly 44 million tonnes of coal from Russia, which accounts for nearly 50% of EU ... » read more | |
| Tuesday Apr 19, 2022 | |
| It was only a little over two months ago where the prompt NYMEX settled at $3.94. Many at the time were calling for an end to winter with a smooth transition to the spring injection season. It was only a few days later that the weather forecast turned cooler initiating an unprecedented run on the NYMEX futures. As of last nights close the prompt contract has appreciated nearly $4 to $7.82. But this run up was not just a product of cooler weather forecasts. Natural gas supply/demand balances have been a running problem since last fall when futures were last above $6. During that moment there was no appreciable increase in natural gas production. That sent the signal that if the gas demand continued to increase as anticipated that there would be a large shortfall of natural gas storage ... » read more | |