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Monday Aug 22, 2016   
With power burns going from going from a high of 39 BCF early last week to just over 32 BCF over the weekend, something has to give to balance the grid. Figure 1 | US Power Burns - 7 Day Rolling Average That something is pretty simple, it went into storage as the daily net injection shfted up from the 1-2 BCF/d number that we have been seeing as of late (this week's EIA Storage number will be in the 8-10 BCF injection range) to more like 8-9 BCF/d. Some of this change can also be attributed to production not falling off, in fact it is slightly increasing over the ... » read more
Friday Aug 19, 2016   
One of the more interesting presentations to come into my Inbox in the last several months is Pacificorp’s presentation at an Oregon PUC meeting on July 26, 2016 titled “2016 Resource & REC RFP Public Utility Commission of Oregon Special Public Meeting.” The presentation, which we were only able to find on the website of the Northwest and Intermountain Power Producers Coalition, provides clues into a number of important trends in Western US power markets.  http://www.nippc.org/upload/PAC%20RFP%20Shortlist%20Presentation%20072616.pdf The ... » read more
Thursday Aug 18, 2016   
Since July 21st, the SP-Midc spread has been volatile with 10 of the days having Midc trade over SP15 while the other 17 showed the opposite.  Breaking it down even further, of the 10 days Midc was over SP15, 3 days have seen the former trade over the latter by more than $10.   Figure 1 | SP15-Midc Heavy Load Spread - Year on Year Comparison This included today as Midc indexed $57.37 while SP15 came in at $45.06.  Part of the reason for the uptick in the Midc price had to do with the weather shifting up to where Portland is expected to 98 degrees later ... » read more
Wednesday Aug 17, 2016   
The first half of August has seen strikingly strong power burns with the daily demand averaging 38.4 BCF which is up nearly 5.4 BCF from Last year.  Looking at the regional break out, we see that the East is the main bullish driver accounting for over half of the YoY Delta.  Figure 1| North American Power Burns by region - BCF Diving into the numbers a little deeper we broke down the EIA East region into sub-regions, they are: New England, Northeast, and the Mid-Atlantic. Figure 2| Power Burns Pipeline Sample by Sub-region    The one ... » read more
Tuesday Aug 16, 2016   
Sunday afternoon, Spectra posted a Critical Notice on the Algonquin Gas Transmission bulletin board notifying market participants that there was a force majeure at the Southeast compressor station in New York. Capacity on the Algonquin Pipeline was already being constricted due to a summer long construction schedule to tie in Spectras Algonquin Incremental to Market (AIM) project before the November 1 start date. The further cut in capacity flowing into New England shot cash prices up from $3.60 to $6.00 per MMBTU for Tuesdays delivery. In Figure 1 below, here is the ... » read more
Monday Aug 15, 2016   
Since the beginning of August, Texas (ERCOT) has seen well above normal temperatures for this time of year across most of the state.  This widespread heat shifted ERCOT's peak load above the 71,000 MW mark (new record) last week. Figure 1 | ERCOT Load and Wind Generation Profiles - Hourly The wind generation was decent those days, which helped shift down the net load numbers during the middle of the day.  From a price perspective, we saw the middle of the day spike as the grid needed to resort to quick firing peaker units to balance the grid.  As you ... » read more
Friday Aug 12, 2016   
This has been a long hot summer in the Midwest. Since June, cumulative CDDs in the Midwest region are only exceeded by 2012 among recent years. Figure 1 shows the cumulative daily actual CDDs for the Midwest region with the orange line representing this year: Figure 1 | Cumulative Midwest CDDs   This prolonged heat has correspondingly led to above normal loads and power burns that easily exceed recent years in the region. Figure 2 shows the daily moving average in burns: Figure 2 | Daily Midwest Power Burns However, this story is beginning to change, with the ... » read more
Thursday Aug 11, 2016   
Throughout the month of July, California's hydro situation continued to look healthy as the monthly flat average came in almost 1,800 MWa higher than last year and only 160 MWa compared to the month of June. Figure 1 | California Hydro Generation - Monthly Flat Average From a storage standpoint, things look pretty healthy as well with the likes of Shasta still well above normal when it comes to its year on year elevation levels. Figure 2 | Shasta's Elevation Levels (ft) - Daily Once August started to roll around, the daytime high temperatures have come in well below ... » read more
Wednesday Aug 10, 2016   
In the previous newsletter we highlighted our new Northeastern Natural Gas Report which covers key metrics needed to understand the day to day changes in the Northeast gas cash market. As a part of our ongoing commitment to provide value added information we have also created daily New England and New York power market reports.  The daily reports break down the fundamental drivers of the individual markets with a special emphasis on the generation availability and the supply stack fuel mix.  Each day we strive to provide specific insight for the next ... » read more
Tuesday Aug 9, 2016   
At EnergyGPS we are always striving to bring a better product to the market that will fit the needs of the trading community.Recently we have developed a Northeast Natural Gas report that addresses some of the key metrics needed to understand the day to day changes in the Northeast cash market. Besides insightful commentary on market events, we provide daily outlooks on production, power burns, and transportation flows that effect the overall daily balancing of the Northeast gas and power markets. At the bottom of each morning report we summarize the maintenance and ... » read more
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