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| Thursday Jun 29, 2023 | |
| The month of June has helped SoCal Gas make up significant ground replenishing its gas storage. At the start of the month, SoCal Gas was looking at the need to put about 0.2 BCF into the ground each day over the summer in order to refill to full by the end of November. In the intervening four weeks they have been way ahead of the mark, averaging nearly 0.5 BCF per day into storage. After adding just 7.2 BCF to storage over the month of May, the month of June has seen SoCal’s caverns receive over 13.5 BCF of additional gas. Part of the story has been SoCal Citygate pricing over PG&E Citygate to incentivize power burns to move out of SoCal’s system and up to the North, but the heart of this pattern has been the very low demand numbers over the course ... » read more | |
| Wednesday Jun 28, 2023 | |
| On June 17th the net discharge of the CAISO fleet provided almost 4 GW to the grid, a record-breaking amount of dispatch that reflects the increasing amount of available battery capacity. The average real-time price for SP15 and NP15 at the time was less than $100/MWh. While not a small amount, especially considering the negative prices operators paid to charge just a few hours before, the price peak of the day was far less than many of the high prices in the real-time market seen earlier this year. The figure below displays an average hourly dispatch profile for batteries for each month in 2023. June only includes the first 20 days of the month. The orange represents batteries discharging to the grid, while the blue is charging. The black line is an average of NP15 and SP15 real-time ... » read more | |
| Tuesday Jun 27, 2023 | |
| Driving to/from Boise, ID is a straight shot on I-84 where seven hours later you arrive at your destination. The drive goes by rather quickly as three factors come into play, the first is the anticipation of your first stop to refuel the gas tank as it is far enough east where it is legal to pump your own gas!! Once you get into Idaho, there are still some who sit in their car waiting for the attendant to walk up to the driver’s window only to realize they must get out and put their own card in the machine, select the type of gas and put the nozzle into the opening for the gas tank. Figure 1 | The Portland to Boise Drive The second factor is tracking the railroad infrastructure while driving along the Columbia River. This one does not come across as much until you ... » read more | |
| Monday Jun 26, 2023 | |
| In this pre-trading NYMEX session the prompt month is holding on the Friday settle of $2.72 as the 15 day outlook is finally bringing seasonal warmth back several regions over the course of the 15-day forecast. Cali and the PNW will start to see sustained above normal temperatures as the dayime highs in Burbank climb from 77 to 87 degrees while Sacramento goes from 81 to 101 degrees by Friday. The Midwest, Midcon and Mid Atlantic currently see sporadic rain throughout the regions keeping the power demand well under normal in NEPOOL, NYISO and PJM. This will look to change as we roll into the new month as the forecast is calling for warmer temperatures throughout and with that comes the summertime humidity. Figure 1 | Forecasted CDD Changes from Fri to Sunday ... » read more | |
| Friday Jun 23, 2023 | |
| Over the past few days, we have published a couple of newsletter blogs as well as a Market Flash discussing the recent price action in ERCOT, when Real Time prices hit the cap in several hubs. Figure 1 | ERCOT RT Dashboard, 6/17/23 – 6/23/23 The contributing factors to the price spike on June 20th have been well-discussed in the blogs linked above, but another interesting day is the 21st, where pretty much the exact opposite happened compared to the 20th. Starting in the top pane, which shows DA prices in blue and RT in orange (for the North Hub), the RT prices shot above the DA for the afternoon and evening on the 20th, but then in RT on the next day, the prices never got off the ground compared to the DA action. Moving to the next pane, the blue line shows RT load and the ... » read more | |
| Thursday Jun 22, 2023 | |
| A couple days ago on Tuesday there was plenty of excitement down in Texas, when the real-time prices shot up in the early afternoon well above the DA market clear and remained elevated until after 8 pm, reaching the price cap of $5,000 for over an hour. It’s not the only piece of the puzzle, but one of the factors that can drive these unexpected spikes in real-time prices is when more load shows up than forecasted or when less wind supply is produced than projected. Both of these were in play on Tuesday afternoon, as shown in the figure below. The “Wind Delta” pane of the figure shows actual hourly wind generation less the day-ahead forecast, with a similar calculation for load in the “Load Delta” pane below. On the afternoon of ... » read more | |
| Wednesday Jun 21, 2023 | |
| The biggest story coming out of the region, known as the South Central, this spring has been the absence of wind generation within SPP and ERCOT. The former continues to lead the country from a wind capacity versus power demand ratio while the latter is the front-runner in total capacity so when Mother Nature delivers a weather pattern that knocks out the power generation from the wind turbines, it has an impact on the overall net load. In the special report, Missing in Action – SPP Wind?, we explore the impact of the missing wind on the SPP grid and explore whether Figure 1 | SPP Wind Generation – Gone but NOT Missing The figure below represents the 12x24 wind, load, and net load profiles for SPP for the past three years with the blue line representing 2021, orange ... » read more | |
| Tuesday Jun 20, 2023 | |
| Texas has carried the motto ‘bigger is better’ for years as its outdoor BBQ festivities cannot be matched, the oil industry speaks for itself, and the electricity grid operation stands on its own to this day. Each one of these components has been tested over time but to this day the slogan still stands. Figure 1 | Texas Bigger is Better Prior to Storm Uri, the electricity operator (known as ERCOT) stood at the top of the mountain when it came to sending a price signal to initiate new build to work its way on the grid. In fact, the price cap of $9,000 was a welcome sight come the summer months when the heat moved in and power demand rose to levels that would once stretch the thermal stack to the cap limit. With the evolution of renewables and coal retirements, the ... » read more | |
| Monday Jun 19, 2023 | |
| Every four years, athletes from around the world gather to compete at the highest level in events that are tied to summer and winter sports, such as track and field, skiing, bobsledding, figure skating and basketball to name a few. The lighting of the Olympic torch symbolizes the start of a two week stretch where competition is fierce, and medals are handed out to the top three athletes in each individual event and medals for the top three teams when pertinent. The lighting of the torch also carries an Olympic slogan where the words ‘let the games begin’ ring through the television announcer’s voice. Figure 1 | Let the Games/Heat Begin The energy sector does not have to wait every four years for a competitive environment between Mother Nature and the ... » read more | |
| Friday Jun 16, 2023 | |
| Energy GPS has been reporting about how Washington’s Cap-and-Invest program began in 2023 with tight supplies (low cap) and strong prices. The first auction cleared $48.50 per allowance (one allowance covers one metric ton of CO2e emissions) and the bilateral market traded as high as $72 per allowance before settling into a range in the mid $60s. The Department of Ecology recently ran a second auction where the price cleared at $56.01 per allowance, up from the last auction but still below the bilateral price. Energy GPS has been modeling the Washington carbon market for the last 9 months. Our estimates show covered emissions will be well in excess of available allowances in any given year and in for the first Compliance Period (2023 to 2026). Stated simply, demand for allowances ... » read more | |