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| Monday Feb 2, 2026 | |
| The storm that is hitting the East Coast currently has snow and ice covering the Southeast to the Carolinas while the likes of New York City and Boston are dealing with 8 straight days of temperatures in the single digits. Texas and the Gulf Coast regions are both thankful for ability to recover from the previous week’s sheet of ice and colder temperatures that wreaked havoc on the system, specifically production in West Texas, Panhandle, Oklahoma and East Texas/Arkansas regions. The recovery of the natural gas production volume is helping the entire country as the cash prices leaning into February were strong but not like they were a week prior. Figure 1 | ERCOT Summary Breakdown of Net Load, Thermal and Prices – Hourly Now that the Lone Star State is thawing out, the net ... » read more | |
| Friday Jan 30, 2026 | |
| Following the recent release of the updated EIA 860m data, we published a piece of content discussing historical WECC capacity additions (Special Report – Capacity Additions in the WECC – 2025). For several years, renewables and storage have accounted for many of these additions, with 2025 also reflecting this ongoing trend. Looking to the future, forecasted capacity additions as expressed in balancing authorities' Integrated Resource Plans (IRPs) are also overwhelmingly composed of intermittent renewable resources and storage. As load growth accelerates and emissions standards tighten across multiple jurisdictions, utilities are planning for a system with declining reliance on conventional, dispatchable, thermal generators, and greater exposure to weather-driven variability ... » read more | |
| Thursday Jan 29, 2026 | |
| While most of the country is worrying about the intense cold wreaking havoc on natural gas production or testing ISO demand response programs, the Pacific Northwest is transitioning back to another stretch of sunshine and comfortable temperatures after some mild cold last week and the first couple days of this week. While this is wonderful news with the many Northwestern’s whose seasonal affective disorder is triggered by the typically gloomy and wet winters, not everything about the current trend in the weather is positive. Two weeks ago in our blog “Drying in the PNW?” we wrote about the transition from one of the wettest Decembers in memory for the region to a “brief” dry spell. This change has turned out to be not-so-brief, and is rapidly pulling the rug ... » read more | |
| Wednesday Jan 28, 2026 | |
| The big story this week continues to be the winter storm and bitter cold spread across the eastern half of the country. From freezing temperatures in Texas (see ‘ERCOT’s Handling of the Cold’) to freeze-offs in the Northeast (see ‘Bracing for Impact’), Energy GPS has been covering the impacts of the extreme winter weather across various natural gas and power markets. The Midwest was one of the hardest hit regions with many cities dealing with snow and ice, along with overnight lows dipping well below 0 degrees F. The figure below shows average Midwest temperature forecasts going back to January 13th. Yesterday’s forecast is on the far right. Moving left to right shows how the intensity of the cold grew over several days as the blues became darker ... » read more | |
| Tuesday Jan 27, 2026 | |
| The ERCOT grid just faced its most serious cold-weather test since Winter Storm Uri (as detailed in our latest article), but the setup this time is materially different. While February 2021 featured a prolonged 10-day stretch of extreme cold, the current forecast shows only 2–3 days of severe conditions embedded within a broader cold-to-normal transition, with temperatures moderating by early February. The forecast HDD matrix below illustrate a sharp but brief penetration of Arctic air following MLK weekend, spreading across Texas and into the Gulf Coast and Southeast—shorter in duration, but still intense enough to stress the system. Table 1 | ERCOT HDD Departure from Normal – 15 Day Forecasts Market signals reacted quickly. Weekend natural-gas prices surged, with ... » read more | |
| Monday Jan 26, 2026 | |
| The recent storm has turned out to be a wild one, noteworthy for both its cold and its broad area of impact. From Texas to Maine, we have some of the worst weather yet this winter. Both power and gas markets have had a sharp response. Every characteristic of a major winter weather event is in play. Heating demand is up, with a massive cumulative impact across the eastern US. And production regions have also struggled, as areas like the NE see well below freezing temperatures. This can force production freeze offs, leading to cuts in supply. Table 1 | Forecast Heating Degree Days by Region Across the Eastern Seaboard and Gulf Coast, spot gas prices are sky high. With such a tight supply/demand balance, the price signal begs for buyers to cut back their demand. But when so much demand in ... » read more | |
| Friday Jan 23, 2026 | |
| Informational Interviews While this topic isn’t directly related to the energy business, I expect there are many people out there who may appreciate this for yourself or when you are helping others. Definition: An informational interview is when a person who is looking for a job or potentially seeking a career change has a conversation with a person in a particular industry to learn more about that industry and the types of jobs within that industry. There is no pressure on the person who has agreed to the meeting. When I was a senior at Hamilton College the people at the career center explained the following. Many jobs are not posted anywhere but rather filled through referrals and word of mouth. Most people are happy to help others who are seeking a job, especially if there is no ... » read more | |
| Thursday Jan 22, 2026 | |
| The Northeast is enjoying a brief bit of balmy weather today but the region (along with much of the easter half of the country) is bracing for a blast of cold that is expected to arrive in force over the weekend and bring frigid conditions to the table through the end of the month. This should be the most severe cold weather event of the winter so far, both in intensity and duration. We can expect strong load and energy demand, along with the interesting dynamic central to New England winters where cold conditions can drive up heating demand in the region enough to eat up all the available gas on Algonquin Pipeline, leaving nothing left for power burns and forcing ISONE to look outside of its natural gas fleet for the marginal MW. Historically, New England has turned first to the external ... » read more | |
| Wednesday Jan 21, 2026 | |
| Here in the Pacific Northwest, the past couple of weeks have felt like an early spring. Temperatures have been mild and rains have been heavy. Even the plants are confused with daffodils already popping up out of the soil. Just as we’ve started getting comfortable, however, the chill has arrived with overnight lows dipping below the freezing mark here in Portland, OR. Other parts of the country are looking at even more frigid conditions coming up in the forecast as arctic air moves through the middle and eastern parts of the country. Figure 1 | Atmospheric G2’s 6 - 10 and 11 - 15 Day Forecast for Jan. 20,2026 Just as the country is starting to cool, important baseload supply is starting to turn off. The figure below is taken from Energy GPS’s NRC Nuclear Change ... » read more | |
| Tuesday Jan 20, 2026 | |
| Last week, we discussed in a NG South Central Flash how intermittent cold snaps from late November through December kept South Central heating demand relevant, but we sustained warmer conditions during the first half of January 2026. While HDDs briefly ran above normal during short-lived cold shots, the broader pattern remained mild, limiting the durability of weather-driven demand support. As a result, early-January fundamentals never fully shown the typical winter demand regime. Figure 1 | | South Central 7-Day Moving Average, Power and Natural Gas Components So far this January, that softness has been clearly visible across power and gas indicators. Regional load, net load, and gas-fired power burns have all tracked well below last year’s levels, reflecting warmer conditions and ... » read more | |