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Wednesday Jan 31, 2018   
Northeast temperatures have proven volatile through January as the new year started with a historic cold snap and the “Bomb Cyclone” weather event.  This last week has been significantly more mild as slightly below normal temperatures have given way to a couple warm spells. Figure 1 | Jan 23rd – Jan 30th ... » read more
Tuesday Jan 30, 2018   
Yesterday, the February NYMEX natural gas contract settled at the highest levels of the month, coming off the board at $3.63. That is 46 cents higher than the March contract value of $3.17 and reflects a growing concern in the market that the level of natural gas storage supply in the Gulf is low enough to cause reliability issues. Two cold events over the past thirty ... » read more
Monday Jan 29, 2018   
Carbon emission reduction bills are currently being heavily discussed in both Washington and Oregon.  While they have come up in the past, they have never made it to fruition.  This time it feels like they will indeed go through, though the timing of such I am uncertain.  Being a longtime utility employee with a pretty strong background in fundamentals, there ... » read more
Friday Jan 26, 2018   
Over the last few years EnergyGPS has done a number of battery analysis projects. For the most part, these projects entail figuring out how to dispatch a battery into a set of energy and ancillary service prices, while honoring project operating parameters – most notably state of charge, or stated another way, make sure that the battery doesn’t run out of juice ... » read more
Thursday Jan 25, 2018   
As we ended 2017 and began 2018, Mother Nature has reminded many what a cold winter feels like as every major area east of the Rockies, as well as down south into Texas, Louisiana, and Oklahoma have been hit with below normal temperatures. These types of cold fronts not only have an impact on more rescom demand but they also cause disruptions in natural gas ... » read more
Wednesday Jan 24, 2018   
ISONE recently released an "Operational Fuel-Security Analysis" report which examines the ISO's ability to reliably meet winter power demand as far out as 2024/2025.  As the report name indicates, the analysis primarily covers the grid's rapid conversion to natural gas and the operational risks that comes with relying on a single fuel source.  ... » read more
Tuesday Jan 23, 2018   
At EnergyGPS we love to see outliers in a data sets. It helps us to draw conclusions about supply demand dynamics in an extreme situation. For the past two winters, the warm conditions have left us in the dark as to how the PJM system would react noting the large amount of new combined cycle gas generation and subsequent retirement of over 35 GWs of coal capacity. The ... » read more
Monday Jan 22, 2018   
Last year at this time the west had the makings of an extremely robust water year.  Figure 1 shows the snow water equivalent (SWE) as a percent of normal last year at this time in the various states of the WECC.  While California's in-state totals aren't shown on this map, their source is the Sierra-Nevada's, which was 160-200% of normal last year at this ... » read more
Friday Jan 19, 2018   
EnergyGPS Consulting has been spending a lot of time in SPP lately. What is happening there with the wind build out is wild. From 2014 until the present they’ve added 12,000 MW of wind, bringing total installed capacity to approximately 20,000 MW. SPP has only had an integrated energy and ancillary services market with both day ahead and real time settlements since ... » read more
Thursday Jan 18, 2018   
ERCOT has been an early mover on renewable power. The Lone Star State reached over 9 GW of wind capacity as early as 2013. CAISO solar was still near infancy during the period with less than 2 GW in capacity. Even with the substantial wind portfolio in Texas, the renewable build-out is far from complete. Several projects have ... » read more
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