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Wednesday Aug 23, 2023   
The Alberta market was off to the races yesterday (Tuesday, August 22nd) as temperatures drove up the overall power demand all the while Mother Nature delivered little wind output.  This left the net load numbers at a level that warranted higher prices in the real-time market. Figure 1 | Alberta Net Load Components – Hourly The graph above illustrates Alberta’s power demand hourly profile in the top pane where the middle pane details the real-time load deviation while the bottom pane represents the wind output.  What is clear is the system operators are thankful that the power demand from 8/17 did not show up at the same time the wind profile associated to the 22nd as the combination would have delivered a record setting net load profile.  Sticking with the ... » read more
Tuesday Aug 22, 2023   
The heat dome impacting the ERCOT grid over the past several weeks continues to hit the SPP footprint as both the North and South continue to see stout implied heat rates as the net load numbers are record-setting.  Figure 1 | SPP Net Load Profile – Hourly The EnergyGPS SPP Morning Report detailed last week how the SPP market was percolating this week as the forecast was calling for record-setting net load numbers coming out of the weekend.  The script has been playing out as Monday’s heavy load settles topped triple digits for both regions while the light load moved deeper into the gas stack.  Tuesday saw SPP-North’s heavy load settle hold at the $110 mark while SPP-South shifted down $20 to settle at $95.  Natural gas cash settles did not deviate ... » read more
Monday Aug 21, 2023   
The weather pattern seen over the past few years has changed the way we look at things as events like Storm Uri were known to hit the Midwest or Northwest in the middle of February, not the South Central (specifically Texas).  Hurricane season runs from early summer to late fall and typically has a focus on the Atlantic Ocean and the Gulf of Mexico.  Many of us remember what Hurricane Katrina did to the Gulf Coast as the massive push of water broke several levees and almost destroyed New Orleans. Figure 1 | Storm Uri and Hurricane Katrina This summer has delivered fires across Canada where the flames are destroying acres of government land and the smoke filled air is circulating around the world with a jet stream moving N to S delivering bad air quality from the Northeast to ... » read more
Friday Aug 18, 2023   
Here at Energy GPS, we have been tracking the Washington State Cap-and-Invest Program since its inception.  As part of such effort, we’ve developed a fundamentals based forecast for emissions from each major carbon emitting sector in the State of Washington.  Our forecast has consistently shown that emissions in the State of Washington will exceed the 2023 program cap.  This is why we were not surprised with the most recent auction results from the first Allowance Price Containment Reserve (APCR) auction. The results from Ecology showed that all 1,054,000 APCR allowances (equally split between Tier 1 at $51.90/allowance, and Tier 2 at $66.86/allowance) were sold. This was an expected result, based on our emissions forecast released in early August ... » read more
Thursday Aug 17, 2023   
Back to the Future was an iconic science fiction movie where Micheal J Fox played Marty McFly, a 17-year old high school student, that was sent 30 years into the past in a time-traveling DeLorean invented by his close friend Doc Brown.  This sort of time capsule allowed Marty to get a glimpse of his parents as teenagers, see things unfold and eventually return to the world he once left in 1985 to see how life evolved over the 30 years as his father was a successful author, his mother was happy and his siblings successful.  In our latest Newsletter Special Report, “Backing into ERCOT’s Future” we look to the future of ERCOT as current events are showing the stress currently in play for the region’s power grid. Figure 1 | ERCOT Back to the ... » read more
Wednesday Aug 16, 2023   
If you’re subscribed to receive our CAISO Daily Battery Dashboard via the EnergyGPS Platinum Plus Package, the table below probably looks familiar. It displays arbitrage values for four-hour CAISO batteries operating in the real-time market of SP15 and NP15. It uses our TB4 model which assumes a battery can discharge in the four highest priced hours of the day and charge during the four lowest priced hours of the day with some efficiency loss. In practice, this is not possible as it would require a perfectly omniscient battery operator. So you might be wondering, how much of this arbitrage are batteries able to capture? To help answer that question, we’ve made some updates to our daily dashboard. Figure 1 | TBNth Arbitrage Values The figure below was featured in ... » read more
Tuesday Aug 15, 2023   
The day of reckoning will be in play across CAISO and ERCOT later today as both regions are looking at extensive heat and little wind generation to assist in the overall balancing act, especially during the evening ramp period when the solar output shifts lower as the sun sets and the net load climbs.  The market conditions within both markets have been discussed extensively over the past couple of weeks within the EnergyGPS North American Power and Natural Gas Enterprise Product Offering.  Figure 1 | CAISO Peak Power Demand – Actual and Forecast The daily conversations within such a product detail the regional supply/demand picture associated to both power and natural gas. Take for example, at the end of July 2023, Southern California’s gas entity had pipe issues ... » read more
Monday Aug 14, 2023   
The summer is nearly half over as the midpoint of the third quarter is upon us.  For those living in the South Central region, specifically Texas, the past six weeks have been one for ages as a heat dome weather pattern has been locked in across the region.  The result is simple, daytime highs regularly tops the triple digit level with high humidity of the Gulf of Mexico that leads to some of the highest ERCOT power demand levels seen by the system operators.  Figure 1 | ERCOT Net Load Daily Profile – Year on Year Comparison Figure 1 displays the rolling 7-Day net load average for the past three years in the top figure while the lower left takes on the profile for the past seven days and an equivalent forecasted period.  The lower right graph displays the hourly ... » read more
Friday Aug 11, 2023   
Summertime: Baseball and Electricity Summer 2023 has been a real scorcher in places and brought with it record-setting heat, particularly in the South and West, along with record-setting performance from many renewables throughout the US.   But summer also makes me think of our national pastime: baseball. I prefer the small-ball version of baseball: singles, stolen bases, bunts, and hit-and-run type play.  It’s more exciting than waiting for a base-clearing homerun.   The electric grid is increasingly playing its version of “small ball” in the form of distributed, smaller-scale, and intermittent resources such as renewables, supplemented with batteries and gas peaker facilities.  Meanwhile, our long-ball analogue, large baseload power ... » read more
Thursday Aug 10, 2023   
This summer has seen some key changes to real-time prices in ISOs across the country that have impacted the revenue renewables have received compared to previous years.  In our latest Newsletter Renewable Monthly report, “July 2023 – Comparing Price Profiles”, we dig into these renewable capture ratios by examining the changes in monthly price profiles, as well as the drivers behind the changes.  Below is an excerpt from the report, touching on both CAISO and ERCOT’s price changes. To start off with in CAISO, renewables performed roughly on par with June production, with the July solar profile peaking at 14.9 GW again while average wind generation shifted down 400 MW to 3 GW for the month.  The events resulted in a July price profile at SP15 that ... » read more
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