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| Thursday Oct 31, 2024 | |
| Sitting where we are just a few days away from the start of November, conversations and social media feeds are filling more and more with talk of the upcoming election. As polls tighten and the event draws near, much of the focus is being put on the so-called “swing states”—the small number of battleground states where the election is expected to be close and the results will determine who the next US president will be. Now, in the heart of the Pacific Northwest there is not a lot of talk around swing states, with Oregon and Washington considered to be safe for Harris while Idaho and Montana are firmly in the Trump camp, but there is another type of swing on the way for the region here at the start of November—a swing in Northwest hydro. Figure 1 | 2024 ... » read more | |
| Wednesday Oct 30, 2024 | |
| ‘Something old, something new’ usually refers to brides borrowing a sentimental item from family while also wearing a recently purchased garment or accessory for their big day. In today’s blog, we’re repurposing the phrase as it fits quite nicely with the recent developments in nuclear power as tech companies are looking to purchase both old and new nuclear power plants. Figure 1 | Bridal Accessories and Palisades Nuclear Plant Something Old For the first time in US history, there are two nuclear power plants attempting to return to service after retirement: Palisades in Michigan and Three Mile Island in Pennsylvania. Palisades retired back in 2022 but was subsequently purchased by Holtec International. They plan to restart the plant by the end of 2025. Recent ... » read more | |
| Tuesday Oct 29, 2024 | |
| Last November, we saw an increase in the flows from Alberta crossing the Empress border, with levels surpassing the 4 Bcf/d mark. This trend is highlighted in the Empress Average Monthly Flows in the figure below, which shows a steady increase from 2019 to today. January 2024 recorded flows reaching 4.38 Bcf/d, significantly higher than the previous year's average of 3.71 Bcf/d. This expansion underscores the growing capacity of the Empress border to moving the natural gas molecules from Alberta to the Central/East side of Canada and the Midwest region of the Lower 48. Figure 1| Empress Average Monthly Flows Correspondingly, the Nova Receipts Average Monthly Flows table indicates a substantial rise in natural gas production in Alberta. Despite the production freeze-offs that occurred in ... » read more | |
| Monday Oct 28, 2024 | |
| With the end of last week bringing another downturn in California spot natural gas prices, now seems a good time to review how shoulder season has been going for this turbulent market. Our focus today is on SoCal, which today looks worse for wear than its northern neighbor. The overabundance of renewables in this energy market is far from new news, but every month brings another surprise as to the depth of the impact on other resources. Figure 1 | SP15 Power Burns 2023 and ‘24 Our 1st figure shows a comparison of year over year power burns within the SP15 power market. In the second half of October, this year’s power burns have departed from the last year’s as demand dried up. The beginning of the month brough abnormal late season heat, but the return of mild weather ... » read more | |
| Friday Oct 25, 2024 | |
| I, Tim Belden, obsessed over the 2020 Presidential election to the point that it was unhealthy. I tracked every poll. I commented when people said crazy things on social media. I became agitated more often than I would have liked. In general, it was a very intense time with COVID and social unrest. Four years later, I still care deeply about the outcome of the election, but I’m doing my best to maintain a healthier mental framework. One way to keep some healthy detachment is to look back at the quality of my life during Republican versus Democratic administrations. I had a great time in college and then living in New York City during the Geore H.W. Bush Administration. I got married and had my first child when Clinton was President. During the George “W” Bush ... » read more | |
| Thursday Oct 24, 2024 | |
| Last week, our blog focused on an uptick in wind showing in the forecast for ERCOT for the coming (this) week. A lot of the conversation around renewables in ERCOT this year has been focused on the solar component given its explosive growth over the past 12 months. Batteries have also received plenty of attention now that peak evening dispatch is approximately 10 times higher so far this month compared to last October at 2.5 GW and the ISO’s battery fleet is supplying over 500 MW on average for the morning high as well. ERCOT wind has not seen the same level of change from new projects coming online with capacity up only a few 100 MW over the summer. But the current events within the state of Texas are a reminder that the wind component is not to be ignored ... » read more | |
| Wednesday Oct 23, 2024 | |
| Yesterday morning, Alberta’s pool price went to the $1000/MWh cap and AESO declared an Energy Emergency Alert Level 3. It occurred in hour ending 8 as Albertans were waking to chilly temperatures as overnight lows had dropped below the freezing mark. Demand was on the rise at 10.3 GW, below the eventual morning peak and below the 10.7 GW peak from the night before. The region’s growing solar resources had only 150 MW to offer to the grid in the cold autumn morning. The solar profile narrows during this time of year. However, the biggest gap came from the region’s other renewable resource: wind. On average this October, wind generation at HE 8 has been around 1.6 GW. Yesterday in HE 8, wind generation was below 0.4 GW. In the early morning hours, it was even lower. The ... » read more | |
| Tuesday Oct 22, 2024 | |
| As October draws to a close and autumn deepens, cooler temperatures begin to make their presence felt, signaling the seasonal shift from mild days to the crisp chill of fall. This change marks a turning point in the natural gas market, where heating demand begins to rise once again, reversing the summer lull. The shift in weather not only impacts demand but also marks the end of the storage injection season, transitioning into the crucial period of withdrawals from underground caverns. This dynamic sets the stage for the upcoming winter, shaping market strategies and price movements in the weeks ahead. Taking a step back, the summer of 2024 began with Alberta's natural gas storage caverns well-stocked, following a mild winter with minimal withdrawals. This surplus laid a solid foundation ... » read more | |
| Monday Oct 21, 2024 | |
| Halloween is just around the corner, as signaled by the giant skeletons appearing on front lawns and bulk bags of candy crowding grocery store shelves. Everyone knows we are close to the event of the season, in terms of candy consumption. But now, candy storage is at a high, and tricker treaters don’t even have their costumes together yet. Trade out candy for natural gas, and Halloween for Winter and you have the situation in West gas markets. Everyone knows the cold is near, but that does not do much good when most of California can go to dinner in a T-Shirt. The massive quantities of gas sitting in storage caverns mean that there’s no critical need to inject gas, just as there’s no critical need to run to the convenience store for a Snickers. Figure 1 | Regional Daily ... » read more | |
| Friday Oct 18, 2024 | |
| There are many ways to describe a set of numbers: max, min, average, sum, median, mode, variance, standard deviation, etc. Each tells us something but doesn’t always describe the whole picture. As we look at wind generation in ERCOT over the next few days, we focus on one metric: the daily average (flat). A substantial amount of wind is in the forecast for ERCOT for the end of this week, with Friday October 18th expecting a daily average that is well above the norm for this time of year. In Figure 1 below, taken on 10/17/24 from the EPGS ERCOT Real-Time Dashboard, the dark blue line shows actual hourly wind generation, and the light blue line is the forecast. Shown as a grey horizontal line, a daily average wind generation of 23.0 GW ... » read more | |