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Monday Aug 28, 2023   
Warmer weather is back in the fold across Southern California after a week ago saw the first tropical storm moving off the Pacific Ocean water and make landfall which resulted in plenty of precipitation, flooding and landslides throughout the region and the Desert Southwest. Figure 1 | Atmospheric G2 Temperature Forecast – CAISO The mini-heat wave looks to last through Wednesday with the likes of Burbank and other LA Basin demand centers seeing triple digits while the Desert Southwest is looking at daytime highs above the 110 degree mark once again with a high of 115 degrees tomorrow.  Once the month shifts to September, Mother Nature has the temperatures transitioning to more of a blue color setting which means cooler temperatures.  The heat brings with it some concern ... » read more
Friday Aug 25, 2023   
Last Thursday, August 17th, ERCOT set a new record for peak net load, as HE19 maxed out at just over 70 GW. At 10.4 GW of combined wind and solar output, this was not quite the hour with the lowest total RE generation (HE20 had only 9.7 GW, essentially all wind), but it had the right combination of generation and load to break the net load record previously set in August 2019 by about 2 GW. This caused prices to clear at or above the $5000/MWh cap for about 1.5 of the tightest hours. Figure 1 | ERCOT North DA and RT Prices, Net Load, and Wind The graph above shows every non-Uri day since 2018 where at least one hub price averaged at least $4500 for at least one whole hour. Three of the days are from August and September 2019. Two are from May and July 2022, one is from this past July ... » read more
Thursday Aug 24, 2023   
The summer of 2023 has been a challenging one for the Pacific Northwest Hydro system.  In an earlier Newsletter Special Report back in mid-May, “Massive May MAF for PNW Hydro”, we discussed the events that transpired this spring that put the Northwest in a precarious situation heading into the summer.  In our most recent Newsletter Special Report, “Hard Summer Choices for PNW Hydro”, we break down the operations that have been used to support hydro flows and generation output this summer, and the impacts these tradeoffs could have moving forward.  Over the summer so far, hydro output has outperformed what one would typically expect the system to produce based on natural runoff over the last two months.  When looking at unregulated flows, which ... » read more
Wednesday Aug 23, 2023   
The Alberta market was off to the races yesterday (Tuesday, August 22nd) as temperatures drove up the overall power demand all the while Mother Nature delivered little wind output.  This left the net load numbers at a level that warranted higher prices in the real-time market. Figure 1 | Alberta Net Load Components – Hourly The graph above illustrates Alberta’s power demand hourly profile in the top pane where the middle pane details the real-time load deviation while the bottom pane represents the wind output.  What is clear is the system operators are thankful that the power demand from 8/17 did not show up at the same time the wind profile associated to the 22nd as the combination would have delivered a record setting net load profile.  Sticking with the ... » read more
Tuesday Aug 22, 2023   
The heat dome impacting the ERCOT grid over the past several weeks continues to hit the SPP footprint as both the North and South continue to see stout implied heat rates as the net load numbers are record-setting.  Figure 1 | SPP Net Load Profile – Hourly The EnergyGPS SPP Morning Report detailed last week how the SPP market was percolating this week as the forecast was calling for record-setting net load numbers coming out of the weekend.  The script has been playing out as Monday’s heavy load settles topped triple digits for both regions while the light load moved deeper into the gas stack.  Tuesday saw SPP-North’s heavy load settle hold at the $110 mark while SPP-South shifted down $20 to settle at $95.  Natural gas cash settles did not deviate ... » read more
Monday Aug 21, 2023   
The weather pattern seen over the past few years has changed the way we look at things as events like Storm Uri were known to hit the Midwest or Northwest in the middle of February, not the South Central (specifically Texas).  Hurricane season runs from early summer to late fall and typically has a focus on the Atlantic Ocean and the Gulf of Mexico.  Many of us remember what Hurricane Katrina did to the Gulf Coast as the massive push of water broke several levees and almost destroyed New Orleans. Figure 1 | Storm Uri and Hurricane Katrina This summer has delivered fires across Canada where the flames are destroying acres of government land and the smoke filled air is circulating around the world with a jet stream moving N to S delivering bad air quality from the Northeast to ... » read more
Friday Aug 18, 2023   
Here at Energy GPS, we have been tracking the Washington State Cap-and-Invest Program since its inception.  As part of such effort, we’ve developed a fundamentals based forecast for emissions from each major carbon emitting sector in the State of Washington.  Our forecast has consistently shown that emissions in the State of Washington will exceed the 2023 program cap.  This is why we were not surprised with the most recent auction results from the first Allowance Price Containment Reserve (APCR) auction. The results from Ecology showed that all 1,054,000 APCR allowances (equally split between Tier 1 at $51.90/allowance, and Tier 2 at $66.86/allowance) were sold. This was an expected result, based on our emissions forecast released in early August ... » read more
Thursday Aug 17, 2023   
Back to the Future was an iconic science fiction movie where Micheal J Fox played Marty McFly, a 17-year old high school student, that was sent 30 years into the past in a time-traveling DeLorean invented by his close friend Doc Brown.  This sort of time capsule allowed Marty to get a glimpse of his parents as teenagers, see things unfold and eventually return to the world he once left in 1985 to see how life evolved over the 30 years as his father was a successful author, his mother was happy and his siblings successful.  In our latest Newsletter Special Report, “Backing into ERCOT’s Future” we look to the future of ERCOT as current events are showing the stress currently in play for the region’s power grid. Figure 1 | ERCOT Back to the ... » read more
Wednesday Aug 16, 2023   
If you’re subscribed to receive our CAISO Daily Battery Dashboard via the EnergyGPS Platinum Plus Package, the table below probably looks familiar. It displays arbitrage values for four-hour CAISO batteries operating in the real-time market of SP15 and NP15. It uses our TB4 model which assumes a battery can discharge in the four highest priced hours of the day and charge during the four lowest priced hours of the day with some efficiency loss. In practice, this is not possible as it would require a perfectly omniscient battery operator. So you might be wondering, how much of this arbitrage are batteries able to capture? To help answer that question, we’ve made some updates to our daily dashboard. Figure 1 | TBNth Arbitrage Values The figure below was featured in ... » read more
Tuesday Aug 15, 2023   
The day of reckoning will be in play across CAISO and ERCOT later today as both regions are looking at extensive heat and little wind generation to assist in the overall balancing act, especially during the evening ramp period when the solar output shifts lower as the sun sets and the net load climbs.  The market conditions within both markets have been discussed extensively over the past couple of weeks within the EnergyGPS North American Power and Natural Gas Enterprise Product Offering.  Figure 1 | CAISO Peak Power Demand – Actual and Forecast The daily conversations within such a product detail the regional supply/demand picture associated to both power and natural gas. Take for example, at the end of July 2023, Southern California’s gas entity had pipe issues ... » read more
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