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| Monday Nov 18, 2024 | |
| In summer, power market pricing comes down in a large part to the ability of generation to meet the demands in peak hours. However, come the shoulder season tightness rarely comes from extreme peak loads but instead depends on what generation resources remain available. For that reason, closely tracking the natural constraints and seasonal outages becomes key to understanding where the market stands. CAISO’s shoulder season has kept us on our toes. Hydro is one generation source which has delivered some surprises, demonstrating the maximum that you can never step in the same river twice. Figure 1 | Peak Net Load vs Peak Hydro The above figure gives a long-term view on the output of the hydro system. What’s most obvious from this chart is the roughly aligned seasonal ... » read more | |
| Friday Nov 15, 2024 | |
| The Washington State Cap-and-Invest program survived Initiative 2117 and will soon close out its second compliance year, marking the halfway point of the 2023-2026 compliance period. We still have no solid data from the program operator about emission levels since 2019. Our analysis continues to show a program with estimated emissions far in excess of the program cap – a structural short position. This short position can be filled in one of three ways – release of allowances currently held in the Allowance Price Containment Reserve (APCR), linking with California and Quebec (pushing the short position into a larger market), or release of more allowances at the ceiling price. Energy GPS analysis shows the program may be able to balance for Vintage Year 2024 with APCR allowances ... » read more | |
| Thursday Nov 14, 2024 | |
| The month of November has seen some changes in the water supply outlook for the 2025 water year. These changes were relatively small moves in the grand scheme of things, but enough to produce larger movements in our expectation for hydro generation once winter and spring come around. This topic was at the forefront of the latest Energy GPS PNW Hydro Report and Discussion. At the start of the month the January-July seasonal water supply forecast was at 90.3 MAF (for the ESP10 forecast), or 87% of the 30-year average of 103.7 MAF that we tie our projections to as the “normal”. By late last week on the 9th that number had risen to 96.4 MAF, or 93% of normal, driven up by the heavy precipitation in the short-term forecast. Since the weekend, we saw ... » read more | |
| Wednesday Nov 13, 2024 | |
| Almost halfway through November, the leaves are looking barer from the loss of their fall color and mornings are chillier here in the Pacific Northwest. All signs are pointing toward the changing of the season. While there is more than a month left until the official start of winter, those in the energy industry are already looking ahead for what’s to come. In the Pacific Northwest, a La Nina winter has set the expectation for a wetter, colder winter. The last week has certainly delivered on the rain as the downpours have been strong and are expected to continue throughout this week. Skiers and snowboarders, especially, are enjoying the precipitation as the nearby Mt. Hood Meadows resort just announced their opening date, the earliest in over a decade due to the resulting snowpack. » read more | |
| Tuesday Nov 12, 2024 | |
| In our latest monthly report titled “October Summerfest”, we highlight the unique seasonal shift that occurred this October, with warmer-than-usual temperatures across the Lower 48. Traditionally, October signals a transition toward colder temperatures, which prompts an increase in heating demand and shifts power demand patterns. Figure 1 | Summer Octoberfest – Beyond Expectations In the South Central region, warmer temperatures impacted ERCOT and SPP's load profiles, resulting in unusual net load profiles given the volatility in renewable energy landscape. The natural gas sector saw a significant increase in power burn compared to October 2023, as planned maintenance outages limited nuclear fleet supply. The report also highlights the strain on production ... » read more | |
| Monday Nov 11, 2024 | |
| Wind generation is something of a black sheep within CAISO’s renewable stack. While solar and batteries have grown rapidly in the last couple of years, wind has not. Its highly variable nature makes it difficult to plan around. This is true year-round, but the problem grows worse in the colder half of the year. Here, wind transitions from variable but on a predictable daily cycle, to variable with no daily cycle. Wind may not have seen the same growth as Solar and batteries, but 4+ GWs of inexpensive electricity still represent a pivotal piece of CAISO’s balancing equation, making keeping track of wind all the more important when it’s at its most variable. Figure 1 | CAISO Wind Generation 12 x 24 Our first figure shows average hourly wind generation by month, with 2024 ... » read more | |
| Friday Nov 8, 2024 | |
| The autumn season so far has been a warm one in Texas, with temperatures coming in above normal all but five days in October, and every day in November so far: Figure 1 | ERCOT Daily Average Temperatures, Oct – Nov 2024 The graph above comes from our latest Renewable Monthly report, which goes into detail on the market fundamentals in CAISO, ERCOT, SPP, MISO, and PJM, and shows the average daily temperature (top pane) and the departure from normal (bottom pane) within the ERCOT system. The context of “above normal” temperatures is important, and means different things depending on the region and time of year. For example, “above normal” temperatures in the winter can mean lower electricity demand since there is less need for heating, but in the summer it ... » read more | |
| Thursday Nov 7, 2024 | |
| Since the summer, congestion bottlenecks have been a topic of conversation for the Southwest Power Pool (SPP) region, leading to elevated SPP-South prices where a recurring theme was the correlation between high temperatures and spikes in congestion costs. These events have continued into the fall, which are the focus of our latest Special Report, “Congestion Challenges in SPP”, as well as touched upon in the context of the SPP renewable landscape this fall in our latest Renewable Monthly Report, “October 2024 – Cool Coasts, Interior Sunshine”. Mother Nature delivered late summer heat waves across SPP in September and October, as illustrated in Figure 1. The top pane of this figure displays the cooling degree days (CDDs), with orange indicating ... » read more | |
| Wednesday Nov 6, 2024 | |
| As voters across the country are tuning into election coverage this week, we're talking about EnergyGPS's coverage of batteries in this morning's blog. For our Platinum Plus subscribers, the start of a new month means more insights into the biggest battery fleets in the country. On the first of every month, EnergyGPS publishes a CAISO Monthly Battery Dashboard and ERCOT Monthly Battery Dashboard. In these dashboards, subscribers can compare average monthly RTM and DAM arbitrage values, along with ancillary service prices, battery buy and sell prices, and more. This weekend EnergyGPS also published a battery report, titled ‘Panini Press’. As a reminder, our battery reports are available to our Platinum Plus subscribers and are sorted into three categories: essential ... » read more | |
| Tuesday Nov 5, 2024 | |
| With clocks shifting back an hour this past weekend, many of us found ourselves readjusting microwaves, stoves, and car clocks—reminding us of the annual ritual of daylight-saving time. The earlier sunsets now cast a darker glow over late afternoons, signaling the start of shorter days and the gradual descent into winter. As temperatures drop and morning frosts begin to settle, coats and scarves come out of storage, and the anticipation of the holiday season starts to fill the air. These subtle yet familiar changes mark the year's end, preparing us for the colder, quieter months ahead. In the energy landscape, similar seasonal preparations are underway. Maintenance activities typically take place during fall and spring when demand is lower, allowing grids to manage without some of ... » read more | |