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| Friday Apr 4, 2025 | |
| The California Resource Adequacy (RA) Program was started in 2004 and requires LSEs to maintain system, local, and flexible RA to ensure a reliable energy grid and to incentivize new resources for future grid reliability. The system RA capacity requirements for each LSE are based on a peak load plus PRM (e.g., 17%), the local RA requirements are based on local constraints determined with a 1-in-10 weather year an N-1-1 contingency, and the flexible RA is based on the largest three-hour ramp for each month. A 24-hour slice of day framework will be used in 2024 as a test year before fully adopting in 2025. The 24-hour slice RA framework is meant to ensure that system reliability (load plus planning reserve margin) would be met on the day of each month with the highest coincident ... » read more | |
| Thursday Apr 3, 2025 | |
| In the Pacific Northwest, activity on the hydro front has picked up significantly over the past week-and-a-half. Things kicked off with the heavy precipitation that showed up in the region last month after two months of relatively low moisture in January and February. As the rainy and snowy days piled up over the course of March, the seasonal water supply forecast ticked up steadily, leading into a rapid surge last week that culminated in a jump from 79.9 MAF (for Apr-Aug flows at The Dalles) on the 20th of March up to a high of 87.3 MAF on the 25th. Figure 1 | NWRFC Water Supply Forecast for Apr-Aug at The Dalles (MAF) The swing reset the expectations for hydro output in April, as the large jump in the water supply forecast led to an updated set of flood-risk ... » read more | |
| Wednesday Apr 2, 2025 | |
| The conditions for capturing real-time arbitrage were great last Monday for ERCOT batteries. The figure below is featured in our ERCOT Real-Time Dashboard and displays real-time net load, thermal generation and outages, as well as prices and heat rates for March 20th through 28th of this year. Our focus for this blog is Monday, March 24th. The net load profile, like most days depicted, had a midday dip from ERCOT’s solar generation. Net load in the evening, however, had a high and steep peak. Real-time prices across the different hubs were at or close to $0/MWh for several hours in the middle of the day. Real-time prices for the North hub are shown as an orange line while West prices are teal. Unlike most of the other days in the last week, evening prices shot over $150/MWh as net ... » read more | |
| Tuesday Apr 1, 2025 | |
| While solar growth and battery flexibility have dominated renewable energy discussions lately across the US, wind generation has quietly made some moves in PJM as discussed in our special report titled “Wind(ing) Road for PJM”. Though new capacity additions have slowed, Mother Nature has delivered a reminder of wind’s influence on grid dynamics. As this report explores, wind’s hourly generation profile is once again becoming a major player in grid operations, despite being less talked about in mainstream energy circles. Figure 1 | PJM Load and Renewable Supply Components – 12x24 Profiles Since early March, wind output across North America has surged to multi-year highs, especially in regions like PJM. Compared to 2023 and 2024, wind generation in 2025 has ... » read more | |
| Monday Mar 31, 2025 | |
| A recent survey of oil and natural gas executives gave us some interesting insight into the thoughts of industry leaders. The key word was uncertainty. Despite plenty of news pointing towards growth in the coming years, geopolitical instability, especially around trade and tariffs, seems to be weighing heavily on investment decisions. For example, while the new administration promises to use all levers available to boost Liquid Natural Gas (LNG) production, potential increases in the price of steel make said development much less tempting. Figure 1 | LNG Exports (MMCF/Day) As mentioned, LNG of the larger reversals in energy policy for this new administration (new development at a faster pace) whereas the previous sought top-down oversight on this growing industry. The chart above ... » read more | |
| Friday Mar 28, 2025 | |
| ERCOT currently reports that they have a little over 10 GW of installed battery capacity, and one has only to glance at the supply stack to see that battery dispatch is becoming an increasingly visible component. The figure below shows ERCOT's reported monthly capacity by resource type for March 2025, alongside an example day's interval-level supply stack breakdown. Figure 1 | ERCOT Fuel Mix and Monthly Capacity The right-hand figure above provides an example of a fairly typical day (March 26th). Net load isn't shown here, but net load on the 26th had similar morning and evening peaks, with the evening just slightly lower than the morning. The timing of battery dispatch (dark red) aligns with the timing of the morning and evening peaks in net load. Figure 2 | 12x24 Average Net Load ... » read more | |
| Thursday Mar 27, 2025 | |
| The headline yesterday on the local news ticker read “Severe weather threat paired with record-breaking heat Wednesday”. The title is an encapsulation of some of the unusual and rapid changes taking place in the Pacific Northwest region that are having big impacts on Northwest hydro, both in the short-term as well as the outlook for the rest of the 2025 water year. Until this week, most of March has been on the cool side. When the precipitation started showing up after a dry end to the month of February, the region saw significant accumulations of snow throughout the region, including the low elevation sites in the Cascades. Figure 1 | West Side Daily Snow Water Equivalent (Inches) The figure above plots the daily snow water equivalent (SWE) ... » read more | |
| Wednesday Mar 26, 2025 | |
| As we approach the end of March, outage season is in full swing as total US nuclear outages surpassed 18 GW on Monday. The amount offline has quickly climbed over the past two months. February began with only around 3.2 GW offline. That jumped to 11.4 GW at the beginning of this month. The figure below shows the 2025 outages in yellow along with our forecast in dark blue. The 2024 outage line is green while the 2023 line is teal. Note that our forecast includes only plants 100% offline for refueling and estimated dates for current unplanned outages. Refueling refers to the scheduled maintenance that each plant completes in 18 or 24- month cycles. These always align with shoulder seasons, either the spring or fall, when demand tends to be lower and grids can afford to lose baseload nuclear ... » read more | |
| Tuesday Mar 25, 2025 | |
| The arrival of spring marked more than just a seasonal shift—it brought a surprising change in the natural gas market, as we discussed in our latest article titled “Back to Square One”. After a long winter of steady withdrawals, the latest EIA storage report revealed a return to net injections, catching the market off guard and triggering a sharp price drop. As we head into Summer 2025, all eyes are on how demand will evolve in this new landscape. This past winter, despite global warmth, delivered colder-than-usual temperatures across much of the U.S., leading to the strongest storage drawdown seen in three years. Now, with storage volumes significantly lower than last year, the race to replenish supplies is on—offering both opportunity and volatility for producers ... » read more | |
| Monday Mar 24, 2025 | |
| In the chaotic world of power, one of the most reliable relationships is between demand and temperature. Cold temperatures generate heating demand, and warm temperatures generate cooling demand. But what about the middle? Flat average temperatures around 65 degrees, meaning a little above room temperature in the day but not to cold at night, signal a low point for demand, something of a goldilocks zone where everyone is comfortable without turning on any switches or spinning any knobs. And as we speak, the West looks very comfortable. Figure 1 | CAISO Demand (MW) vs Temperature (F), February through April Our first figure shows the relationship between temperature and power described above for California. Points in yellow represent days in 2024, and blue is 2025. Triangles stand for the ... » read more | |