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| Friday May 24, 2024 | |
| ERCOT is in the middle of an extended stretch of hotter-than-normal weather. The worst of the heat is still to come, over this upcoming weekend, but today is hot as well, with highs in the 90s or 100s depending on the region. Figure 1 | ERCOT Temperature Forecast from WSI Trader, 5/23/24 – 5/28/24 The heat has brought with it higher load. Of course, in ERCOT, there is always the possibility for high load to be offset with high wind and solar generation. High levels of renewable output have kept the net load more or less in check over the past couple of weeks of heat (despite the fact that the grid has had to contend with more generator outages than usual for this time of year). But the outlook for today is for wind to die down during the highest-load hours of the afternoon and ... » read more | |
| Thursday May 23, 2024 | |
| Much of the conversation around MISO since the winter has been tied to renewables and the rapid growth displayed by solar in particular. Solar capacity (at least as it translated to solar MW on the MISO grid) has grown steadily for several years leading up to 2024. But since January of this year the growth has been explosive. The figure below plots average hourly MISO solar generation by month, going back to the start of 2020 with the blue bars in the top pane. The red line represents a running maximum instead of average solar output, as a proxy for actual observable, usable capacity in place. Overall, in 2023 this solar output rose by just over 700 MW, but over the first four-and-a-half months of 2024 the number has almost doubled, climbing 2.5 GW to reach ... » read more | |
| Wednesday May 22, 2024 | |
| With just a passing glance, it might seem as though the troubles for Glen Canyon dam and Lake Powell behind it are in the rearview mirror or at least trending in the right direction. A couple strong water years have boosted elevation levels at the lake which hit its lowest point ever a little over a year ago. Now Lake Powell’s elevation sits over 3,560 feet, recently surpassing lake levels from this time three years ago. After a decades-long drought, the last two years have given the lake a much-needed boost and given states in the Colorado River Basin some breathing room when it comes to agreeing on a plan to reduce water usage. However, problems at Powell persist when it comes to long-term planning for Glen Canyon dam and the millions of people that rely on both water from the ... » read more | |
| Tuesday May 21, 2024 | |
| ERCOT is back at it again with heat moving into the Lone Star State, which means the conversation around the net load profile takes center stage, especially during the evening ramp portion of the heavy load block as declining solar and volatile wind both are contributing factors to balancing act. Figure 1 | ERCOT Net Load Breakdown – Hourly The graph in the figure above is an illustration of ERCOT’s net load profile where the last day that warranted a higher price signal was back on the 17th when the stars aligned to create a steep ramp in a short period. This is a common theme that EnergyGPS continues to discuss in detail within its South Central Power Sub-Package to the North American Power and Natural Gas product offering. The conversation is how the ERCOT grid ... » read more | |
| Monday May 20, 2024 | |
| Records are meant to be broken is the old saying in sport, but the energy sector has a logbook of its own where the power landscape focuses on renewable energy, the natural gas landscape leans on some basis hubs sitting in negative territory quite often as of late while the weather is working on record temperatures hitting parts of the Lower 48 this spring. Figure 1 | Records are meant to be broken Starting in Texas, the wicked storm that took the Houston metro area by surprise late last week brought with it hurricane/tornado type winds that rocked the downtown skyscrapers awhile knocking down trees and there were images of massive transmission standards toppled where power is still out for many. The timing of the storm could not have been worse as Mother Nature is delivering heat ... » read more | |
| Friday May 17, 2024 | |
| From 2012 to 2022, coal’s portion of total electric generation in the US declined from 37% to 20%. Factors including economics, primarily competition from and the expanded use of natural gas, and coal’s numerous environmental problems have been slowly chipping away at its output. In the US, new coal plants are not being built and old ones are retiring with regularity. Despite all the issues associated with coal, there is a positive attribute that coal does provide: fuel supply resilience. If built as a mine-mouth plant, it sits at the very source of its fuel or it can mound up a great big pile near the plant as shown in Figure 1. So, while natural gas pipelines may experience operational problems such as freezing, and wind and solar are ... » read more | |
| Thursday May 16, 2024 | |
| What a difference a week makes! One week ago our newsletter was centered around the relatively cool start to May that had EGPS personnel wearing jackets into the office in the morning and tied to a stagnant hydro system in the Pacific Northwest. Seven days later and the conversation around the water cooler had flipped on its head after a weekend of hot weather, and after our office air conditioner conked out the temperature in the office had climbed up to 82 degrees and there was not a jacket to be seen. The cool temperatures up to last weekend fed into an already dry water year and has kept overall generation from the hydro system low through the first two weeks of the month. Each water come spring time, early May is when we typically see water hit the rivers in ... » read more | |
| Wednesday May 15, 2024 | |
| Back in the days of broadcast television, individuals or households occasionally had to make difficult decisions about what to watch if there was more than one desirable program showing at the same time. Do you catch the latest episode of your old favorite, or check out that new show you’ve been hearing about on the other channel? Here at EnergyGPS, we direct you to the current important shows to watch in energy markets across the country, so you don’t miss out on the big moments. In our most recent battery report, we discussed how focus for those interested in CAISO batteries has changed over the years. Read on for a sneak peek at ‘Midday Charging – The Game to Watch’. For people casually interested in CAISO batteries, the best topics to focus on have ... » read more | |
| Tuesday May 14, 2024 | |
| The solar storm has grabbed the headlines over the weekend and on Monday where an article talked about how big machinery, such as tractors in the vast fields in the Midwest, lost their GPS signal for a period. Others have found themselves gazing into the night sky looking at the aurora lights, which are noticeable due to the super geomagnetic storms that are in play. As of right now, the world is not coming to an end as the disruptions have been minimal to satellites and the power grid. It should be noted that has been one solar storm that has been in play for months and has impacted the power grid. That is none other than the California fleet as the capacity continues to grow and curtailments are a common occurence. The storm is so impactful that it ... » read more | |
| Monday May 13, 2024 | |
| The Midwest ISO (MISO) region continues to see renewable growth in both the solar and wind sectors, which in turn brings the daily market fundamentals into the conversations that are had for CAISO, ERCOT and SPP. The maturity of the renewable development in both CAISO and ERCOT allow for each region to move to the top of the list when it comes to each technology having an impact on the overall price structure in both the day-ahead and real-time markets which in turn impact the forward market. Figure 1 | MISO Solar and Wind 12x24 Profiles The graph above illustrates both renewable profiles by displaying the 12x24 values over the past three years with the current generation numbers represented by the red line. A couple of interesting things stick out with the first tied to the ... » read more | |