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Wednesday Nov 27, 2019   
Over the summer, we spent a lot of time talking about the bucket of hours where the power demand was quite high and the wind output within the ERCOT footprint was low.  When you threw in the increasing solar profile within the ISO footprint, you started to see some resemblence of the CAISO energy market where the evening ramp period was quite steep to which resources become quite limited when it comes to balancing the grid.  In the ERCOT market, the ORDC calculation stimulates the price action as the Operating Reserves (OR) is calibrated off a Demand Curve (DC) so when reserves get low, the price signal skyrockets up to help incentivize new build capacity within the grid.  This will be a common occurrence again this upcoming summer as the operators of the grid have made ... » read more
Tuesday Nov 26, 2019   
Coming into this winter, SoCal Gas was expected to have a much easier time balancing the system than in winters past. In the aftermath of the Aliso Canyon storage leak and the rupture of line 235, the gas balancing in Southern California has had to navigate a constant threat of reliability issues. A number of steps have been taken since last summer to avoid the pitfalls from last year. SoCal Gas has been able complete several pipeline repairs which have allowed the return of lines 4000 and 235 to service. They have also filled the storage capacity on the system from last year's draw down. And in a big surprise, the California Public Utility Commission has loosened the usage rules for the beleaguered Aliso Canyon storage cavern along with a reduced Operational Flow Order ... » read more
Monday Nov 25, 2019   
The Thanksgiving holiday seems to be taking a backseat to both Halloween and Christmas as the stores move right from pumpkins to Christmas decorations.  That does not seem right in my book as the Thanksgiving holiday is one of my personal favorites as you get to just hang out and eat good food, watch some football and have the next three days off where you can spend it with family and friends.  It is on the weekend when you can actually spend the time getting the Christmas lights out of the rubber containers in the garage and hang them up on the roof's edge in a way that lights up the neighborhood. Now the one thing that wil take a little joy out of the long weekend is the mere fact that Mother Nature is going to be delivering some cold turkey to many parts of the country.  ... » read more
Friday Nov 22, 2019   
Congestion on the grid is sometimes compared to driving on a highway during rush hour. The road can only fit so many cars, and once it reaches its limit, traffic slows down and new cars have a hard time entering. Likewise, due to transmission constraints, all of the low-cost energy that would like to flow to load cannot do so. When this happens, constraints trigger congestion, congestion is resolved economically, and the prices on the “sending” end of the constraint go down – the difference between the hub price and another price is referred to as basis. EGPS considered the basis relative to the SP15 hub for three locations: Palo Verde, Colorado River, and Mead. Mead and Palo Verde are two important import points for the CAISO in Nevada and Arizona respectively, and ... » read more
Thursday Nov 21, 2019   
If you have spent anytime looking at the Western Natural Gas Market over the past 3-4 years, the numbers of days where there was not a critical notice coming out of the SoCal Gas system is minimal.  You have to go back to the pre-Aliso Canyon leak days to really see a stable grid where natural gas transport capacity reached the 4.1 BCF mark and there was plenty of injection/(withdrawal) capacity.  In fact, the possibility of not having enough gas was so remote that H%$# would almost have to freeze over. Fast forward to today where it seems that with any given 48 hour time period, SoCal Gas can go from sending out a High OFO Critical Notice to that of a Low OFO notice.  The volatility that is tied to such swings stems from the lack of supply at times ... » read more
Wednesday Nov 20, 2019   
There are parts of Texas, Oklahoma and Kansas that are known as tornado alley as high and low pressure systems collide across the state lines and massive swirls of wind create cyclones that definitely cause damage within their paths way. Figure 1 | Tornado Alley - North Texas, Oklahoma and Kansas Now that renewables are present in both SPP and ERCOT, the regional section known as Tornado Alley has periods when Mother Nature provides enough wind  to where both areas turn into Wind Alley. This week is one of those weeks as both regions are showing extensive wind output by Wednesday/Thursday.   Let's take a look at the ERCOT market first as their wind profile will eat away at over half of the power demand profile for a good chunk of the day.  The graph below is an hourly ... » read more
Tuesday Nov 19, 2019   
Over the past four years, Texas Eastern has experienced four pipeline ruptures along its Northeast path. The two events that happened this summer have caused additional investigations into the integrity of the pipeline. With safety being the primary concern, Enbridge, the parent owner of TETCO, has cut capacity on two pathways out of the Marcellus producing basin. In total just over 1 BCF of export capacity to both the Gulf and East Coast market areas is being restricted. Most of the market concern has been on downstream balancing issues. Winter basis premiums have soared into the Northeast delivery zones. But another concern is what to do with the volume that is locked into the Marcellus Basin due to the cut in exports. Since the ruptures, storage volumes on the Dominion system have ... » read more
Monday Nov 18, 2019   
If you are receiving/reading this daily blog, you have signed up for the EnergyGPS Newsletter via our website portal.  Today's blog is to keep you informed as to some of the most recent articles, monthly reports and the special reports we have published as part of our Newsletter Packages.  Before we get into the summary of each, I felt it would be good to layout what each of our packages offer once you subscribe. Newsletter Packages Blog | Free | daily blogs tied to some pertinent topic in the energy market. Silver | $75/month | access to historical blogs via our website portal Gold | $150/month | Silver Package plus access to 40 plus articles written by EnergyGPS staff over the course of the year (average around 4 per month/once per week) Platinum | $250/month | Gold Package ... » read more
Friday Nov 15, 2019   
Last week we framed the battery question in terms of dollars per MWh that would have to be earned in order to make the math work. Today's blog highlights the valuation techniques and results of battery optimization, whereas the EnergyGPS Special Report, titled 'Battery Modeling Using the TB4', dives into detailed analysis around battery optimimization.  The special report is included in the EnergyGPS Platinum Package we offer as part of our Newsletter Subscription (Monthly or Annual) or you can by the report a la carte ($500) by clicking on the link tied to the title. When Energy GPS looks at batteries we use a number of valuation techniques including examining regulating reserves payments, simple energy arbitrage payments in various markets, and a more complex forms ... » read more
Thursday Nov 14, 2019   
In football, there are a handful of teams that always seem to walk into the month of November with this notion of not winning a game all season.  The Miami Dolphins came to mind in late October as they were actually winless in their first 7 games but have rallied to win 2 in a row.  The New York Jets team is flat out bad as their record is also 2-7 with a win earlier in the season before they fell on some hard times.  The Cincinnati Bengals are the prize jewel of the group this year as they are currently 0-9 while the Washington Redskins are 1-8.  As you can see from each team's record, the wins are few and far between with many winless in November. How does all this NFL talk translate to the energy markets you might ask?  The similarity is reflected in the actual ... » read more
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