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| Tuesday Apr 18, 2023 | |
| After a relatively slow but steady decline in Pacific Northwest hydro generation over the first two weeks of April of approximately 500 MW, this weekend saw a steeper drop down of 1 GW in two days, from 8.5 GW this past Friday the 14th to 7.5 GW on Sunday. The region saw the fruits from warmer temperatures and plenty of precipitation leading up to and through the first portion of last week in the form of increased river flows on both the Snake and Columbia rivers, that latter portion of the week saw flows pull back. After peaking at 75 kcfs on Wednesday, April 12th, Lower Granite inflows declined through the weekend as temperatures cooled and snow melt came to a halt, ending the week at 56 kcfs on Sunday. Over on the Columbia main stem, Grand Coulee outflows dropped down ... » read more | |
| Monday Apr 17, 2023 | |
| If you ever get a chance to drive from the Pacific Northwest to the Midwest along Interstate 90 and 94, I highly recommend it especially if you are an energy geek like me. Starting off in Portland and heading east on I-84, you move out of the Columbia River Gorge by passing that of Bonneville and The Dalles dam. It was dawn at the time of my travels, but you could still see the midst of the spillways running under the moonlight of in the distance. The next visual was that of John Day dam and the blinking red lights that light up the high desert hillside. These lights are associated with the wind farms that have been built and managed over the years. As you pass by the dams, the city ports are full of data centers that are running non-stop 24 hours a day. ... » read more | |
| Friday Apr 14, 2023 | |
| I subscribe to four newspapers, including: The New York Times. Read it for national news. But mostly subscribe for Wordle and Spelling Bee. Media rating of “Skews Left” and “More Reliable.” The Wall Street Journal. Read it for straight down the middle news. Media rating of “Balanced Bias / Skews Right” and “More Reliable. The Oregonian. Read it for the local Portland news – local/state politics, crime, sports, and food. Media rating of “Balanced Bias” and “More Reliable.” The Southeast Examiner. Hyper local news. Free Monthly publication with the tagline “Your Neighborhood News Source Created and Powered by the Love of Community.” The publications are listed in reverse order of preference – I ... » read more | |
| Thursday Apr 13, 2023 | |
| The attention has been on snowpack throughout the Pacific Northwest over the past week, as recent days have given the region plentiful precipitation as well as the first blast of warmer temperatures of the spring to kick start snow melt, at least for a brief period before things cool down again (as they have already started doing). Earlier at the beginning of the week on Monday the first signs of snow melt showed up for the Snake River basin as the snow water equivalent (SWE) for the Upper Snake River Above American Falls watershed area began to show a decline from before the start of last weekend. In the few days since then, snow melt has begun to be observable over a broader area, with the Snake basin SWE declining further and SWE for the Columbia basin starting to drop as ... » read more | |
| Wednesday Apr 12, 2023 | |
| In Shakespeare’s Julius Caesar, ‘Beware the ides of March!’ refers to the warning Caesar ignored from a soothsayer that could see into the future. Unbeknownst to Caesar, his fellow leaders were planning his demise for the middle, or the ides, of the month. In his hubris, he ignored the warnings and felt the consequences later. In the natural gas and power markets, there are no soothsayers that can provide insight months into the future. Instead, market participants attempt to read the tea leaves that come in the form of weather forecasts and regressions from historic records. The month of March brings along with it certain assumptions; spring is on the way with warmer temperatures and a switch from natural gas withdrawals to injections. The West could have used a warning ... » read more | |
| Tuesday Apr 11, 2023 | |
| The winter weather across the West region has been in the news since the start of November and escalated in December as the California natural gas market saw its cash prices move up from the mid-teens to that of $60 on a tight cash trading session. A lot has changed since that time as Mother Nature has delivered plenty of precipitation in the Golden State that has showed up as snowpack and now rainfall. The ground saturation issues that were present given the drought-like conditions seem to be long gone for the time being and the lakes that were hit on hard times will have recreation activity come the long Memorial Day holiday weekend. Figure 1 | CAISO Hydro Generation – Year on Year Comparison The graph above is an illustration of the flat hydro generation ... » read more | |
| Monday Apr 10, 2023 | |
| The Easter Bunny has come and gone and depending on which part of the country you live determined if the eggs were hidden in the backyard or someplace within the house. Looking ahead to the middle of April and beyond, the current weather forecast has some warmer weather in the near-term while the 6-10-day period is carrying closer to normal conditions. This is true for the Midwest and Ohio Valley as temperatures rise all week and give way to colder conditions come the weekend. The 11-15 day block is trending warmer across the entire country; therefore spring-like conditions are warranted and will be enjoyed by many, especially those in the West as temperatures have been nothing but cold up to this point of 2023. This type of weather will lead to the renewable landscape ... » read more | |
| Friday Apr 7, 2023 | |
| Ending the first week of April, the spring season is underway and the weather in California is finally reflecting it (well, mostly; Northern CA is still getting some rain). With days on end of sunshine and comfortable temperatures not calling for much heating or cooling, solar curtailments are picking up significantly, as we discuss in our latest Special Report, The Belly is Big,. While most curtailment tends to happen at a local level—that is, local congestion and constraints drive nodal prices low enough to incentivize individual generators to turn off—this is also the time of year where system-wide overgeneration is most likely to occur. Figure 1 | CAISO Solar and Wind Curtailments, 3/30 – 4/5 The figure above shows solar and wind gen and curtailments, on an hourly ... » read more | |
| Thursday Apr 6, 2023 | |
| This week marks the arrival of one of the major events of the water year when it comes to impacting hydro generation in the Pacific Northwest. While mother nature seems to be dragging her feet in the transition from winter into spring with chilly mornings and hailstorms pummeling Portland that leave the ground looking like snowfall, there is one change related to springtime that cannot be delayed—the implementation of spring spill. From the start of the new year up through the present the fish protection operations have been focused on Chum incubation, to keep water levels on the Lower Columbia high enough to provide a healthy environment for the fish to develop and hatch. As that time arrives, each spring the operation changes to instead help newly hatched ... » read more | |
| Wednesday Apr 5, 2023 | |
| After a long and frigid winter, Alberta is moving through their last wintery push this week. The 15-day forecast for the last few months has been covered by a dark blue cloud of below normal temperatures. The most recent streak of cold ends today with average temperatures below freezing at 30 degrees Fahrenheit. While the demand isn’t up to the record level of earlier this winter, peak demand was up to 10.5 GW last Friday and over 10 GW yesterday. The real trouble comes when wind doesn’t show up to contribute its fair share of supply. The figure below shows load, wind generation, and net load, calculated by subtracting wind from overall load. The bottom panel shows power pool price. While the grid handled the highest demand on Friday without breaking above $60/MWh, the last ... » read more | |