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Thursday Nov 17, 2022   
Each month as part of our Newsletter Platinum Plus package, we publish a report on the developments relevant to the renewable space over the previous month across the country, touching on CAISO and the West, ERCOT, SPP, and PJM in particular.  In our latest report, “October 2022 – Where the Wind Blows”, we discussed the explosion in wind production that set off during the last week of October but has extended through the first half of November as well.  The impressive wind performance was present in California but has been most eye-popping in the Southwest in ERCOT as well as to the North in SPP. Figure 1 | SPP 7-Day Average Net Load Focusing on SPP, the winds have been strong enough to push net load down to the lowest levels seen in the past three ... » read more
Wednesday Nov 16, 2022   
The holiday season is almost upon us. Turkeys, stuffing, and mashed potatoes will be laid out on tables across the country next week. And many will soon start shopping for presents to be wrapped up and placed under a brightly decorated tree come Christmas morning. In the energy business, this holiday season brings the wrapping up of the nuclear outage season and the gift is having baseload, low-carbon energy back on the grid.  With temperatures falling and heating demand rising, this will be a welcome return for many regions. This past spring, we at EnergyGPS revamped our nuclear outage forecast. The figure below is delivered daily to subscribers to our NRC nuclear report. Email if you’re interested in receiving these to your inbox. The figure shows historic ... » read more
Tuesday Nov 15, 2022   
The looming question over the head of the natural gas market over the past months is about the return of the Freeport LNG facility. And it should be as the terminal will consume up to 2 BCF per day of Gulf Coast natural gas when the go ahead is given to restart operations. In the meantime the molecules dedicated to tanker loadings and exports are being backed into the Gulf storage balancing. Since the rupture happened on June 8 the rejection of 2 BCF per day of feed gas has been the single biggest contributor to the rebound in EIA South Central storage inventory. Since the event occurred the storage inventory has climbed from .8 to 1.2 BCF per day. Absent the shut down the injections would have missed some 320 BCF of volume leaving the regions inventory at only .9 TCF. That would be a ... » read more
Monday Nov 14, 2022   
There was a time when the power markets traded in quarter and fifty-cent increments across the country, but those days are long gone as it is the natural gas space that has taken over the reigns of trading in such blocks.  Yes, you heard that correctly, the prompt month natural gas contract is not associated with quarter and fifty-cent moves rather than pennies and nickels.  For example, as of the early morning trading on November 14th, the prompt month Nymex contract (December 2023) is up $0.40 to place its outright level at $6.28.  This was after a holiday session the previous Friday saw the same month’s value move down roughly $0.30 on light trading. Figure 1 | Nymex Prompt Month Contract Source: CME Trading Platform There are several reasons for such volatility ... » read more
Friday Nov 11, 2022   
One problem that arises when considering the future value of a renewable resource is figuring out what the average price of electricity is likely to be over the next five, ten, or even twenty years. But even assuming that’s solved, another problem is figuring out how much of that average price a given renewable resource is likely to actually earn. Solar and wind, depending on the market, location, and a variety of other variables, often tend to generate more or less when the price is routinely higher or lower than average. For example, solar in California is only able to generate during the daytime when prices are low, or, on the other end of the spectrum, solar in Texas profits from price spikes tied to high demand during sunny afternoon hours. Estimating this can be tricky. There ... » read more
Thursday Nov 10, 2022   
Tuesday night people across the country plopped down in front of their televisions and computers as election results rolled in to watch as the lines across the map filled in blue or red with the announcement of each winner.  Americans tuned in to see if it was a red wave or a blue wave resulting after a long political campaign season.  Results are still being tabulated, but the one thing that is certain is that the Pacific Northwest won’t be dealing with a red wave where the weather is concerned. Figure 1 | 2022 House Election Map From the New York Times 2022 Election Map The region is in the midst of a blue wave of chilly temperatures and strong river flows ever since the atmospheric river swept into the region late last week.  The figure below shows a matrix of ... » read more
Wednesday Nov 9, 2022   
In the first week of November, following Nymex has been like riding a roller coaster. Usually moves are made in pennies, but the last week has been trading in quarters and 50 cent pieces. In October, Nymex wasn’t quite as volatile, but it certainly had its ups and downs. In our recent monthly report ‘Falling Only to Rise Again’, we explored the rises and falls of Nymex last month as well as power burns and other trends in natural gas and power markets across the country. Read on for a sneak peak into October’s monthly report and email if you’d like to receive the full November report straight to your inbox. The prompt month for Henry Hub fell for much of October, continuing the late summer trend as production was putting molecules onto the ... » read more
Tuesday Nov 8, 2022   
The natural gas market is absorbing the simple fact that Mother Nature is showing a cold weather pattern that will sweep across North America over the next 15-days and potentially through the end of the month.  This type of pattern has re-vitalized the front of the Nymex future market as the December 2022 contract was up over a $1.00 since Friday morning in yesterday's session.  That meant that December carried a $7.00 handle at one point in the session only to settle in at $6.94 as of Monday's close.  Prior to the polar vortex type weather making its way into the Lower 48, it is starting up in Western Canada as this week is showing well-below normal temperatures across British Columbia and Alberta.  For example, temperatures in Alberta have fallen to 28 degrees F ... » read more
Monday Nov 7, 2022   
If you recall, this past Labor Day weekend put on display some heat that pushed the CAISO power demand profile to the brink of disaster.  If it were not for the simple fact that the CAISO pushed real-time alerts to consumers for conservation, who knows how things would have turned out.  These are the times we are currently dealing with as Mother Nature continues to deliver extreme weather events that test both the power and natural gas grids across the country.  This week the script is tied to winter-like weather, not the scorching heat. Figure 1 | 15-Day Pacific Northwest Degrees from Normal Forecast Matrix The Pacific Northwest is looking at their overnight lows dipping down into the low 20’s and the further north you travel the individuals living there are looking ... » read more
Friday Nov 4, 2022   
Without ever spending much time in the spotlight, SPP is managing to rack up intervals where the amount of wind generation exceeds the total demand, which has been highlighted in the EnergyGPS daily content delivered to clients along with the Newsletter Platinum Plus Renewable Monthly Report, titled 'September/October - Gone With the Wind Part 2'.  As we roll into the month of November, the situation continues to worsen if you are a wind generator sitting on the front line as the North zone sends a negative price signal in the early morning hours as the only option is to curtail the renewabe resource.  Down in the South region, we see more local issues as the generation cannot get to the demand centers thus other resources, such as natural gas units, are needed to balance the ... » read more
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