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| Wednesday Jan 3, 2024 | |
| It was a warm end to 2023 for Alberta with hope for cold on the way as we ring in the new year. The figure below shows heating degree days and heating degree day differences from normal for the Canadian province. The last two months of last year saw mostly above normal temperature as represented by the red bars. Average temperatures jumped in December, up from freezing level in November to 36 degrees to end the year. Several days were more than 20 degrees hotter than normal. Figure 1 | Actual HDDs and HDD Differences from Normal in Alberta (Nov - Dec 2023) As expected, load was down compared to previous years with the heating demand lessened. The figure below shows the profile for an average day in November and December in Alberta. The first panel show typical load with this year in red ... » read more | |
| Tuesday Jan 2, 2024 | |
| Happy New Year to Everyone!! The shift to 2024 awoke Mother Nature as she is finally going to deliver some winter-like temperatures to several parts of North America, starting with the West Coast. The precipitation pattern, combined with the colder temperatures, will lend itself to snowpack accumulatio in the mountains where it is desperately needed. As the week progresses, the weather pattern will move into the Rockies and central part of the Lower 48 where freezing temperatures will help the ski resorts finally get some base. Figure 1 | Cumulative HDD for Lower 48 – Latest 15-Day Forecast The chart above is an illustration of the 15-day forecasted HDD levels for all the Lower 48. It clearly shows the current HDD forecast (blue line) tracking higher than where ... » read more | |
| Friday Dec 29, 2023 | |
| Another year is going into the history books as this weekend marks the last couple days of 2023. Before we turn our attention to the upcoming 2024 Calendar Year, it is worth it to reflect on some of the key highlights that allow energy to be one of the most dynamic and volatile sectors in the market. Figure 1 | Goodbye 2023, Welcome 2024 Out West, the natural gas landscape was licking it wounds from a lashing it took at the end of 2022 as gas utilities were racing to the regulatory committees begging for some assistance. The common routine is to have a few meetings to set forth the proposals to which one was tied to the California Public Utility Commission (CPUC) and its ability to approve more capacity to the Aliso Canyon natural gas storage facility within the SoCal Gas ... » read more | |
| Thursday Dec 28, 2023 | |
| While much of the country is making their way back into the office after the holidays and planning when to take down the Christmas lights still adorning their trees and houses, in Texas the holiday decorations aren't the only thing lighting up the state. Early in ERCOT’s renewable transition phase, the conversation focused on wind penetration as the West was the pioneer when harvesting what Mother Nature delivered while the North and South regions followed it the footsteps with added capacity and a more robust 24-hour profile. In recent years, solar has been capturing the topic of conversation as ERCOT is quickly gaining ground on California which is the pioneer when it comes to all renewable technologies. The Renewable Monthly Report (Platinum Plus eCommerce ... » read more | |
| Wednesday Dec 27, 2023 | |
| Southern California’s world looks a lot different this holiday season compared to the previous two. If you recall, prior to Winter 2022, the big concern was tied to the reduction of transport capacity from the Desert Southwest due to the August 2021 fire on L2000. Such a reduction in the overall capacity prompted the California Public Utility Commission (CPUC) to allow 7.2 BCF more gas to be put into Aliso Canyon’s storage cavern. This decision came with public protests and testimonials but nonetheless, the board members passed the ruling unanimously. Figure 1 | Aliso Canyon Storage Levels The ironic thing about the decision is that the SoCal Gas system did not have to dip into the incremental gas storage volume all winter despite the lack of natural gas ... » read more | |
| Tuesday Dec 26, 2023 | |
| The holiday season is full of joy and happiness, where family and friends gather around and tell stories about years past and what is in store come the New Year. Here at EnergyGPS, we would like to invite you to our virtual gathering to first thank you for being a part of the experience in 2023 and we look forward to what lies ahead in 2024 and beyond. Figure 1 | Happy Holidays from EnergyGPS This past year brought forth the conversation of how the energy sector became fully connected globally as the Russian-Ukraine war continued to forge ahead with the former being isolated by several European countries while the latter had its allies pumping both money and military equipment towards the smaller foe as a means of survival. Behind the scenes, agriculture, supply chain ... » read more | |
| Friday Dec 22, 2023 | |
| Figure 1 | Megasized Steelhead, of Equal Weight to Fredonia Generating Station (Alternatively, Tiny Fredonia) On December 14th, the Biden administration announced their support for breaching the four lower Snake River dams (Ice Harbor, Lower Monumental, Little Goose, and Lower Granite) after a proposed agreement was leaked. The agreement also indicates that, if the removal of the dams is expedited, it would take no longer than two fish generations, or eight to ten years. In addition to the objective of restoring salmon and steelhead populations to healthy levels, the agreement includes the objective “Invest in and support communities and economic sectors (e.g., energy, transportation, agriculture, and recreation) in a manner that: is consistent with meeting decarbonization ... » read more | |
| Thursday Dec 21, 2023 | |
| The CAISO battery fleet has been dealing with symptoms tied to lower revenue, especially the past couple of weeks as natural gas continues to soften, a Diablo Canyon nuclear unit went offline for some unplanned maintenance and now the lack of solar generation due to cloud cover and a precipitation pattern that is bringing rain to Southern California. Figure 1 | CAISO Battery Fleet Breakdown for December 12th – 18th – Hourly The chart in the figure above illustrates the CAISO battery charge (blue shaded area) and the discharge (orange shaded area) volume for the past eight days. The black line represents that of SP15’s real-time five-minute price settles on a $/MWh basis. The sharp spike in the actual price back on December 12th came during the morning ... » read more | |
| Wednesday Dec 20, 2023 | |
| With 2024 just around the corner, we are quickly approaching the first anniversary of the Washington Cap and Invest Program. We’ve been covering the developments every step of the way, including most recently in the market flash ‘Auction #4 Results’. Earlier this month, we also released a new monthly dashboard for those interested in keeping track of conditions in the Pacific Northwest. The WA Carbon Dashboard includes the following figures, which display year-on-year comparisons of load, net load, and hydro generation in the Pacific Northwest. The thicker red line represents the current year while the teal and orange lines represent 2022 and 2021 values. Each figure also displays a thick gray line which takes the average monthly values for the years 2015 to 2019. » read more | |
| Tuesday Dec 19, 2023 | |
| The Pacific Northwest is getting another round of precipitation along the I-5 corridor while the temperatures are lingering on the side of colder overnight temperatures and moderate day-time highs. This combination led to the Mid-C trading hub settling below that of both hubs in California (NP15 and SP15) in the bilateral market for today. Figure 1 | Pacific Northwest Hydro Generation – Next 7 Days The graph in the figure above displays the next seven days of hydro generation (red-dotted line) and compares it to the five-year band (gray shaded area) and where things stood last year leading into the holiday season. The 2023 forecast is below that of last year but is well above the 9.5 GW average we were looking at just a few weeks ago. There are a couple of reasons tied ... » read more | |