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Tuesday Dec 12, 2017   
The market is now a month and a half into the winter withdrawal season and it is time to do a little recap into what we have seen so far. According to NOAA, the total population weighted heating degree days for the month of November came in at 488.That was 51 less than normal making this another start to a warm winter for the Lower 48. From an outright demand standpoint, the ... » read more
Monday Dec 11, 2017   
If you have watched the natural gas forward market the past week, you have seen nothing but a downward movement which has been led by a warmer forecast hitting the Lower 48 in the 6-10 day period and pull some of the colder weather out of the 11-15 day timeframe.  The one area of country that has been strong has been the SoCal Citygate spot prices as planned and ... » read more
Friday Dec 8, 2017   
Last weekend I was sitting in a restaurant in Portland enjoying a taco for lunch. My family was sharing our table with a single diner, so we struck up a conversation. She mentioned that she is the proud new owner of an electric vehicle. And she proclaimed that she was really excited to be driving a ZERO emission vehicle. She said it in a way that led me to believe that she ... » read more
Thursday Dec 7, 2017   
One thing I love about Christmas time is driving around looking at all the Christmas light displays as some can get quite extravagant. I remember one year, a house I went to see had lights synced to the theme song of Frozen to create quite the show (Let it Go, Let it Go..... yes the song will not we in your head the rest of the day). While these displays are great to look at ... » read more
Wednesday Dec 6, 2017   
The majority of the conversation in the energy space over the last couple weeks has been focused on the impressive ridge which is forming over the center of the continental US.  This is driving temperatures well below normal in the East while the West remains relatively warm.  As has been discussed, the cold shot through the eastern portion of the country will ... » read more
Tuesday Dec 5, 2017   
It may have taken the Northeast a month but it now time to get winter underway. Starting today through the rest of the week, average temperatures across the Midwest and MidAtlantic will drop from 50 down to 30 degrees. The product of such a  temperature drop will be a big increase in ResCom demand normally associated with space heating. Our forecast is calling for a 33% ... » read more
Monday Dec 4, 2017   
Over the past 6 or so weeks, SoCal Citygate cash prices have been labeled the the Algonquin of the West as we have seen days with indices in the $5.00 to $6.00 range and one day go as high as $12.00.  Most of the volatility to the upside stemmed from well above normal temperatures driving up power loads while a fire hit the Topock region as well as the ongoing Line 4000 ... » read more
Friday Dec 1, 2017   
On November 15th PJM published an important document with a very boring title – “Proposed Enhancements to Energy Price Formation.” In the last two weeks a number of clients have asked us about this proposal. This week I sat down and gave it a careful read. The body of the document is 24 pages with an additional 28 pages of technical appendices. After ... » read more
Thursday Nov 30, 2017   
Over the course of this year, power burns in the Midwest have been fairly low. The relative coal to gas price ratio is generally a telling factor, but recently gas generation has been lower than implied by this ratio.    Figure 1 shows the percentage of thermal generation served by gas on the vertical axis while the ... » read more
Wednesday Nov 29, 2017   
Now that Thanksgiving is safely in the rear-view mirror it is time to fully transfer to a Christmas theme. As everyone knows, the department stores have fully committed to the transformation as entire aisles, nay sections, of Christmas products have hit the shelves.  Walking around the neighborhood we are starting to see decorative lights and door wreaths ... » read more
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